WTI TECHS: (J5) Heading South
- RES 4: $80.07 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 3: $79.07 - 3.000 proj of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- RES 2: $77.86 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $71.38/74.06 - 50-day EMA / High Feb 3 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $68.64 @ 07:22 GMT Feb 27
- SUP 1: $6836 - Low Feb 26
- SUP 2: $67.75 - Low Dec 20 ‘24
- SUP 3: $66.41 - Low Dec 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $65.41 - Low Oct 29 ‘24 and a key support
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s sell-off reinforces current conditions. The move lower has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started on Jan 15 and paves the way for an extension towards $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $74.06, the Feb 3 high.
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GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: Tender on Thursday:
The DMO has announced that it will sell the 0.125% Jan-26 gilt (ISIN: GB00BL68HJ26) for GBP1.5bln via tender on Thursday. This is the gilt that we expected and in the middle of the GBP1.0-2.0bln size estimate that we pencilled in.
GOLD TECHS: Bull Phase Remains Intact
- RES 4: 2817.6 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $2800.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $2790.1 - Oct 31 ‘24 all-time high
- RES 1: $2786.0 - HIgh Jan 24
- PRICE: $2742.6 @ 07:24 GMT Jan 28
- SUP 1: $2702.2/2671.6 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
Despite yesterday’s pullback, Gold is trading closer to its recent highs. A bull cycle is in play and the breach of resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2671.6, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.
BUNDS: US Tariffs Talks drive cross assets
- A tighter 10 ticks overnight range session for the German Bund, but the contract did gap lower on report that Trump's Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is backing to Levy a 2.5% Universal tariffs on US imports that would increase on a Month to Month Basis.
- Moves have been far more pronounced in the Dollar.
- Nonetheless, initial support will be at 131.33 (Monday's gap) in Bund, followed by the 131.00 figure.
- The small opening gap was up to 131.61, but this has now been closed on the Cash open.
- Better resistance is still seen at 132.22 and 132.57 initially.
- There's very little on the Data front for today, these start Tomorrow, but really picks up on Thursday/Friday.
- For Today, US prelim durable goods is the notable release.
- SUPPLY: Netherlands €2.5bn 2030 (would equate to 22.5k Bobl) could weigh, UK sells a 2035 linker (won't impact Gilt), Italy €3bn 2027 (equates to 26.5k short 2yr BTP) could weigh, the 2029, 2036 Linkers won't impact BTP.
- US sells $30bn of 2yr FRN (won't Impact Treasuries), sells $44bn of 7yr notes (the main focus for the US).
- SYNDICATION: Austria 10yr and 2049 Green.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Villeroy, Cippolone.
