STIR: J.P.Morgan Recommend SFIH5/U5 Steepeners

Feb-06 15:56

J.P.Morgan recommend entering tactical SONIA H5/U5 steepeners.

  • They don’t “view the dovish shift from BoE’s Mann as a leading indicator that the body of the MPC is on the cusp of shifting to a more activist approach. There is still a group on the MPC that views the upside news in indicators of pay growth and inflation over recent quarters, in parallel with continued weakness in activity, as symptomatic of constrained supply relative to demand and weak productivity growth that was unlikely to correct.”
  • They note that the spread “is at its flattest levels for several months with the spread also a few bp too flat vs. the level of U5 implied rates.” They think “this spread is unlikely to flatten further given a still gradual BoE easing stance.”

Historical bullets

US DATA: Softer Hires Rate Chimes With Lower Quits

Jan-07 15:49
  • Returning to the JOLTS report, hiring details were also on the soft side, chiming more with the resumed downtrend for quits rates than the stronger than expected job openings.
  • The hires rate fell to 3.31% in Nov from 3.39% in Oct and 3.51% in Sept, drawing level with the 3.31% in June that marked the lowest since Apr 2020 and before that late 2013. 
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GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week

Jan-07 15:46

The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP1bln of the 1.25% Nov-54 linker (ISIN: GB00BPSNBG80) at its auction next Tuesday, January 14.

EGB SYNDICATION: New 30-year SLOREP: Priced

Jan-07 15:36
  • Size set earlier: E1bln (MNI had expected E1.0-1.5bln)
  • Spread set earlier at MS+128 (Guidance was MS+140bps area then MS+135bps area)
  • Reoffer price 99.10 to yield 3.548%
  • Benchmark: DBR 2.5% 08/15/54 +85.1
  • Books above EU2.1b (including JLM interest)
  • Maturity date: 14 April 2055
  • Coupon: 3.5%, annual, act/act, long first
  • Issuer: Slovenia Government Bond (SLOREP)
  • Settlement: 14 January 2025 (T+5)
  • ISIN: SI0002104873
  • Joint bookrunners: Deutsche Bank, Erste Group, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, HSBC, J.P. Morgan (B&D), and OTP Banka Slovenia
  • Timing: 3:20pm London

Details as per Bloomberg and Market Source