EURGBP TECHS: Key Short-Term Resistance Still Intact
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8378 High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.8328 @ 16:39 GMT Feb 14
- SUP 1: 0.8297/8248 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
EURGBP is in consolidation mode. The recent move higher still appears to have undermined a bearish threat, however. 0.8378, the Jan 6 high, has been defined as a key short-term pivot resistance. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a resumption of bearish price action would once again refocus attention on 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and bear trigger.
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GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: CEOs Worried About Risk Of Intensified Trade Wars
A new annual survey from the Conference Board has found that global CEOs are increasingly concerned about trade wars and a decoupling of China from international trade systems.
- The 2025 survey shows that, according to at least 500 global CEOs, business leaders report their primary concern is intensified trade wars, brought into focus by hardline rhetoric ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's return to office.
- The survey shows that the fourth highest concern of the 2024 survey - the risk of military confrontation between Russia and NATO - has fallen out of the top 10 concerns.
- The survey also shows that US national debt and deficits is the 5th highest concern, likely an acknowledgement that an ideologically fractured Republican Congress must raise the US federal debt ceiling by summer.
- Axios notes on the survey: "Geopolitical worries don't seem to have dampened broader economic optimism. Last year, 55% of U.S. CEOs said the risk of an economic downturn or recession would be a high-impact issue last year. This year, that fell to less than 40%."
Figure 1: Top Geopolitical Risks for 2025, According to Global CEOs
Source: Conference Board, Axios
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation: Declining Usage
RRP usage declines to $119.977B this afternoon from $160.219B on Tuesday. Compares to $98.356B on Friday, December 20 - the lowest level since mid-April 2021. The number of counterparties retreats to 39 from 59.
PIPELINE: Corporate Debt Issuance Update
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/16 $1B #Citadel LP $500M 5Y +170, $500M 7Y +190
- 01/15 $750M #NY Life 10Y +70
- 01/15 $500M #NLG Global Funding 5Y +95
- 01/15 $Benchmark Dexia 5Y SOFR+73a
- Expected to issue Thursday:
- 01/16 $Benchmark CABEI 3Y +75a
- 01/16 $1B Kommuninvest WNG 3Y SOFR+37a
- 01/16 $Benchmark CDP Financial 5Y SOFR+63a
