REAL ESTATE: Kojamo (VVOYHT: Baa2 neg): Guidance +170a
Mar-05 11:56
* Guidance: 500m WNG 7yr Green ms+170a * Books: above 3bn (6x) * IPT: 500m WNG 7yr Green ms+200a * W...
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US TSYS: Significant Twist Flattening On Long-Threatened Tariff Unveiling
Feb-03 11:54
- Treasuries continue to demonstrate significant twist flattening following President Trump actually imposing long-threatened tariffs over the weekend (to be effective Feb 4).
- Trump has unveiled 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods except for a partial carve-out with 10% on energy (including oil & electricity), along with 25% tariffs on Mexico and 10% on China plus threats of upcoming tariffs on the EU. The measures take effect at 0001ET on Tuesday leaving only a small window for last-minute negotiations.
- Cash yields are 7.5bp higher (2s) to 2.2bp lower (30s) with the pivot after 10s.
- 2s10s at 27bps (-7.5bps) is at lows since late December.
- TYH5 is within session ranges at 108-29+ (+ 02+) on heavy cumulative volumes nearing 770k (~1.6x recent averages).
- A bullish corrective cycle is intact as 109-10+ (50-day EMA) remains exposed. It has been pierced but a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme and open 109-31 (Dec 18 high). The medium-term trend condition is bearish. It hit 108-21+ shortly after the open probe 108-23+ (20-day EMA) with initial firm support seen at 108-06 (Jan 23 low).
- Data: S&P Global US PMIs Jan final (0945ET), ISM mfg Jan (1000ET), Construction spending Dec (1000ET)
- Fedspeak: Bostic talks on economic outlook (1230ET), Musalem welcoming remarks (1830ET) – see STIR bullet.
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $84B 13W & $72B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Structure in Gold Remains Bullish
Feb-03 11:47
- On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Last week’s extension higher resulted in a print above $2790.1, to record a fresh all-time high. The climb confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on $2817.6 next, the 1.236 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. The first key support to watch is $2687.5, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at $2728.1.
- In the oil space, last week’s move down in WTI futures marked an extension of the current corrective cycle. The 20-day EMA has been breached and attention is on support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.26. A clear break of the 50-day average would suggest scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a reversal higher would refocus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance.
STIR: US Rates Clearly Show Near-Term Inflationary Impact From Trump Tariffs
Feb-03 11:43
- Fed Funds implied rates clearly show the initially inflationary aspects of President Trump actually imposing long-threatened tariffs over the weekend (to be effective Feb 4).
- The near-term inflationary/longer-term growth negative angle can be seen in SOFR futures, with the Sep’25 yield 6bps higher, Dec’26 unchanged and declines further out in the greens and beyond.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 4bp Mar, 9.5bp May, 18.5bp Jun, 23.5bp Jul, 30bp Sep, 39bp Dec.
- The March rate is 1.5bp higher, June 5.5bp higher and Dec 8.5bp higher from Friday’s close. It sees a next 25bp Fed cut now priced for September whilst the 39bp of cuts for 2025 has more than reversed last Monday’s slide on DeepSeek driven risk-off.
- The latter sits between recent extremes of 24bp seen in the aftermath of a strong payrolls report and 54bp on last week’s US tech-led slide.
- Today’s scheduled Fedspeak comes from Bostic (non-voter) on the economic outlook at 1230ET (Q&A only) before Musalem (’25 voter) at 1830ET limited to welcoming remarks.
- Bostic’s last public comments were recorded on Dec 9 (pre the Dec 17-18 FOMC meeting) but only released on Jan 7. He pushed the need for caution: “Given that kind of bumpiness in the measures, I think that will call for our policy approach to be more cautious […] And if we’ve got to err, I would err on the upside. I would want to make sure—for sure—that inflation gets to 2 percent, which means we may have to keep our policy rate higher longer than people might expect, or we may have to be more deliberate in the pacing of reducing our policy.”
