LATAM FX: LATAM FX Price Signal Summary – USDMXN Clears Key Support

• +9,000 TUH5 102-18, buy through 102-17.88 post time offer at 0903:45ET, DV01 $330,000. The 2Y contract trades 102-18 last (-4.38)
• Despite the weaker post-data price action, curves have extended steeper: 2s10s +3.442 at 28.010

• The extremely strong supercore (core services ex OER & primary rents) print of 0.76% M/M sa in January followed zero revisions (to 2.d.p) for both Nov and Dec and a limited -0.04pp for Oct.
• We had seen analyst estimates between 0.38-0.45% M/M for January.
• Being its strongest since Jan 2024, when it printed 0.84% M/M, it will likely elicit further questions on residual seasonality.
• It leaves a 3-month run rate at 5.4% annualized after a downward revised 3.3% (initially 3.5%) for its strongest since April, whilst the 6-month accelerated to 4.7% from 3.60% (initially 3.66).
• As for the broader revisions to core CPI in Q4 noted earlier, they were driven by core goods with a notable -0.09pp to -0.04% M/M in Dec and -0.10pp to 0.21% M/M in Nov ahead of tariffs.
• See the below table for a survey of core goods & services SA revisions:

Gilts sell off on the back of the U.S. CPI data.

• Futures as low as 92.33, breaking through the 20-day EMA (92.63).
• Our technical analyst’s next support of note isn’t seen until the Jan 24 low (91.52).
• Intermediate support seen before there at the 38.2% retracement of the move from the ’25 low to ’25 high (92.29), followed by the Jan 29 low (91.96)
• Yields 5-7bp higher, curve steeper.
• 10s still 4.5bp below next resistance at the Jan 29 high (4.622%).
• 10s 2bp wider to Bunds on the day, last 209.5bp.
• BoE-dated OIS showing 56bp of cuts through year-end vs. ~58bp seen ahead of the U.S. data.
• SONIA futures +0.25 to -4.5.