US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Consolidating, Chip Stocks Underperforming
Feb-27 19:49
* Stocks consolidated late Thursday, the Dow reversing course after outperforming much of the sess...
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COMMODITIES: WTI Rebounds, Gold Bull Phase Remains Intact
Jan-28 19:49
- WTI has jumped back into gains on the day, likely supported by comments from the White House Press Secretary that the Feb 1 deadline for applying tariffs on Mexico and Canada still stands.
- WTI Mar 25 is up by 1.0% at $73.9/bbl.
- Despite today’s gains, WTI futures remain below the 20-day EMA at $74.13, which was breached yesterday, turning attention to support around the 50-day EMA, at $72.22.
- On the upside, a continuation higher would focus attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance.
- Meanwhile, Henry Hub is extending its decline this week to the lowest levels since Jan 8, driven by a warm weather forecast for the southern US, which eases demand pressures after the cold weather last week.
- US Natgas Feb 25 is down by 7.0% at $3.44/mmbtu.
- Elsewhere, spot gold has risen by 0.9% to $2,764/oz, unwinding most of yesterday’s losses.
- The gain comes despite the rebound in the dollar today, as the yellow metal is buoyed by haven demand amid ongoing tariffs concerns.
- The move brings gold back toward its recent highs, with a bull cycle still in play.
- Sights are on $2,790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend, opening the $2,800 handle.
CANADA: Macro Since The Last BoC: Growth - Reasonable
Jan-28 19:44
- The limited growth-related releases of note saw real GDP growth surprise higher than expected in October at 0.3% M/M (cons/advance 0.2) after an upward revised 0.2% (initial 0.1) in September, but with a disappointing -0.1% M/M advance estimate for November (full due two days after the meeting on Friday).
- Since then, nominal retail sales saw a particularly strong 1.6% M/M jump in the December advance, likely in response to the temporary GST/HST holiday that started in mid-Dec but was announced Nov 21 with some discretionary spending likely held back.
- It leaves conservative monthly GDP estimates on track for circa 2% annualized growth in Q4 (chart below shows a crude entry of 0.0% M/M for Dec), with a chance of a fair bit higher, with the BoC forecasting 2.0% for Q4 back in October.
- With the BoC previously forecasting potential growth at 2.4% in 2024 and 1.9% over 2025-26, it’s possible that excess supply stopped building and could have been trimmed a touch.
- The Bank will however be attempting to calculate and look through the extent to which recent strength has come from the temporary boost from the tax holiday.
- On the outlook more generally, firms in the Business Outlook Survey for Q4 reported improvements in sales expectations after a period of weak demand: “This expectation is largely driven by recent interest rate reductions and the anticipation of further cuts ahead” with the latter on note in current deliberations.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Issuance Update: $3B JPMorgan Launched
Jan-28 19:40
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/28 $3B #JPMorgan PerpNC5 6.5%
- 01/28 $3B #American Express $1.45B 6NC5 +75, $300M 6NC5 SOFR+102, $$1.25B 11NC10 +90
- 01/28 $2.5B #Toronto-Dominion Bank $1.25B 3Y +62, $500M 3Y SOFR+82, $750M 7Y +87
- 01/28 $2B Carnival Corp 8NC3
- 01/28 $2B #Arab Republic of Egypt $1.25B 5Y 8.625%a, $750M 8Y 9.45%
- 01/28 $1.75B #Capital One 11NC10 +162
- 01/28 $750M *Ziraat Bank 5Y 7.375%
- 01/28 $500M *Aircastle 5Y +108
- 01/28 $Benchmark ForteBank 5Y 8%a
