US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Hardware/Software Makers Weigh on IT

• RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12  
• RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
• RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 156.75 High Jan 23       
• PRICE: 155.08 @ 16:29 GMT Jan 29
• SUP 1: 153.72/34 Low Jan 27 / Low Dec 18  
• SUP 2: 152.55 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg
• SUP 3: 151.81 Low Dec 12   
• SUP 4: 151.06 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg   

USDJPY is trading closer to its recent lows. The primary trend condition  remains bullish, however, Monday’s move down highlights a stronger bear threat. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low. A resumption of weakness would open 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance is at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.        

• Block, 5,000 SFRM5 95.87/96.00 call spds, 1.5 vs. 95.765/0.08%
• Update, over -15,000 0QH5 96.62/97.12 1x2 call spds, 0.75 vs. 96.145/0.05%

• Fed Funds implied rates see a modest climb on the FOMC statement, to extend the day’s increase, mainly helped by the removal of the reference to inflation making progress line.
• Odds of a cut next meeting are further trimmed to 6.5bp vs 7.5bp prior and a next 25bp cut tilts a little more towards July over June (June to 24bp vs 26bp prior).
• There are 45bp of cuts priced for 2025 vs 47bp pre-release and 50bp this morning (which had aligned with the median dot last month).