LNG: LNG Supply to Europe Rose to 11mtpa in January: Timera

Feb-13 10:19

LNG supply volumes departing for Europe in January 2025 rose to approximately 11mtpa, compared to an average of about 9.6mtpa over 2022-2024, according to Timera Energy.

  • Increased imports help balance the loss of ~15bcm/yr of Ukrainian transit flows while cold and low wind have driven higher continental demand and storage withdrawal rates.
  • A declining JKM-TTF premium to -3.97 €/MWh on Feb. 10, has resulted in several LNG cargo diversions from Asia to Europe. Europe’s share of global LNG exports has been boosted by a 26% rise in front month TTF since Dec. 16.
  • “The merchant value of European regas capacity has increased following a period of weak DESNWE-TTF spreads in 2024, as improving regas utilisation calls on higher variable cost terminals,” Timera added.
  • European LNG sendout has risen to 459mcm/d on Feb. 11 compared to an average of 434mcm/d so far in Feb and 372mcm/d in Jan, according to Bloomberg.

 

image

 

Source: Timera Energy

Historical bullets

EGB OPTIONS: Bund put spread buyer

Jan-14 10:17

RXG5 125.5p, bought for 1 in 2.2k.

US INFLATION: MNI US CPI Preview: Still Too High For Comfort

Jan-14 10:15

Our preview of Wednesday's December CPI release has been published (PDF): 

  • Consensus sees core CPI inflation decelerating slightly to between 0.2 to 0.3% M/M in December, with MNI’s analyst review pointing to an average estimate of 0.24% so a bias toward a 0.2% rounded figure.
  • Likely to be the single most closely watched individual aspect of Wednesday’s CPI report, rental inflation is expected to accelerate to an average figure that firmly rounds to 0.3% M/M in December.
  • Supercore inflation is seen pulling back, though, to the upper 0.20s%, from 0.34% in November.
  • If housing is our top pick to watch this month then core goods inflation – which is seen pulling back in December - is closely second, amid tariffs speculation.
  • Initial estimates point to core PCE inflation at ~0.20% M/M, softer in outright terms but on a relative basis an acceleration from the softer 0.115% in Nov. That outlook will hinge partly on PPI data out Tuesday.
  • It is clear that the Fed will hold in January, with the first plausibly “live” meeting not until March. But with pricing having shifted so quickly away from 2025 cuts, it’s a good juncture to assess whether markets have gotten too hawkish.
  • Even in-line inflation readings could bolster the FOMC leadership’s confidence that they are on track to get PCE to 2%, and leave the door open to two rate cuts later this year, though this report is not widely expected to provide the requisite evidence.
image

EQUITIES: EU Bank rolling Option call

Jan-14 10:11
  • SX7E (17th Jan) vs (21st Feb) 149c, bought the feb for 2.7 in 20k.

Suggest rolling call, there's 22.1k OI in the Jan.