LNG: LNG Supply to Europe Rose to 11mtpa in January: Timera
Feb-13 10:19
LNG supply volumes departing for Europe in January 2025 rose to approximately 11mtpa, compared to an average of about 9.6mtpa over 2022-2024, according to Timera Energy.
Increased imports help balance the loss of ~15bcm/yr of Ukrainian transit flows while cold and low wind have driven higher continental demand and storage withdrawal rates.
A declining JKM-TTF premium to -3.97 €/MWh on Feb. 10, has resulted in several LNG cargo diversions from Asia to Europe. Europe’s share of global LNG exports has been boosted by a 26% rise in front month TTF since Dec. 16.
“The merchant value of European regas capacity has increased following a period of weak DESNWE-TTF spreads in 2024, as improving regas utilisation calls on higher variable cost terminals,” Timera added.
European LNG sendout has risen to 459mcm/d on Feb. 11 compared to an average of 434mcm/d so far in Feb and 372mcm/d in Jan, according to Bloomberg.
US INFLATION: MNI US CPI Preview: Still Too High For Comfort
Jan-14 10:15
Our preview of Wednesday's December CPI release has been published (PDF):
Consensus sees core CPI inflation decelerating slightly to between 0.2 to 0.3% M/M in December, with MNI’s analyst review pointing to an average estimate of 0.24% so a bias toward a 0.2% rounded figure.
Likely to be the single most closely watched individual aspect of Wednesday’s CPI report, rental inflation is expected to accelerate to an average figure that firmly rounds to 0.3% M/M in December.
Supercore inflation is seen pulling back, though, to the upper 0.20s%, from 0.34% in November.
If housing is our top pick to watch this month then core goods inflation – which is seen pulling back in December - is closely second, amid tariffs speculation.
Initial estimates point to core PCE inflation at ~0.20% M/M, softer in outright terms but on a relative basis an acceleration from the softer 0.115% in Nov. That outlook will hinge partly on PPI data out Tuesday.
It is clear that the Fed will hold in January, with the first plausibly “live” meeting not until March. But with pricing having shifted so quickly away from 2025 cuts, it’s a good juncture to assess whether markets have gotten too hawkish.
Even in-line inflation readings could bolster the FOMC leadership’s confidence that they are on track to get PCE to 2%, and leave the door open to two rate cuts later this year, though this report is not widely expected to provide the requisite evidence.
EQUITIES: EU Bank rolling Option call
Jan-14 10:11
SX7E (17th Jan) vs (21st Feb) 149c, bought the feb for 2.7 in 20k.
Suggest rolling call, there's 22.1k OI in the Jan.