US TSYS/SUPPLY: March Issuance Outlook: Steady Overall Sales Size

Curve steepener blocked after the bell at 1524:00ET, DV01 $375,000:

• +9,000 FVH5 106-16.75, post time offer vs.
• -4,300 UXYH5 111-18, sell through 111-18.5 post time bid

• RES 4: 0.6441 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 - Jan 13 downleg  
• RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12               
• RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13  
• RES 1: 0.6325/6331 50-day EMA / High Jan 24
• PRICE: 0.6248 @ 16:38 GMT Jan 28 
• SUP 1: 0.6209 Low Jan 21     
• SUP 3: 0.6165/31 Low Jan 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A medium-term bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and recent gains have stalled at resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6325. The reversal lower suggests the possible end of the correction between Jan 13 - 24. A continuation lower would open 0.6131, the Jan 13 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, a clear breach of the 50-day average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery.  

• The BoC is heavily expected to cut its overnight rate target 25bps to 3.00% on Wednesday.
• There's a wide range of terminal rate forecasts for the BoC amongst analysts, from 1.75% to 3.00%.
• The median in the table below sits at 2.5%, firmed up a little further with the addition of Rabobank received since we published our BoC Preview, but there are multiple calls for a terminal at or below the bottom of the BoC's neutral range of 2.25-3.25%.
• Market pricing currently has around 2.6% for a terminal having fallen about 30bps since mid-January.
• See the MNI BoC Preview here.