NORWAY: Marginal Upward Revision To 2025 Oil and Gas Investment Expectations
Feb-13 11:30
Respondents to Statistics Norway’s Q4 oil and gas investment survey marginally revised their 2025 investment intensions higher relative to Q3, now at NOK254bln from NOK253bln prior.
- The initial estimate provided for 2026 investments was NOK197bln. This is the second-highest ever initial estimate (4% below the initial estimate of NOK205bln for 2025). Estimates are generally revised higher through the year (see chart).
- Total 2024 investments were NOK251bln, up 16.7% from 2023. High investments in 2023 and 2024 were largely driven by the post-covid tax package, which applied to PDOs (plan for development and operation) submitted before the end of 2022. High product prices also necessitated higher nominal investment spending.
- In real terms, annual oil and gas gross fixed capital formation growth was 9.6% in 2024, slightly below Norges Bank’s 10.0% December MPR projection. Norges Bank expects annual oil and gas investment growth to ease to 4.0% in 2025, before turning negative in 2026 (-6.0%) and 2027 (-5.0%). This pullback is expected to drag on headline GDP growth.
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CHF: USDCHF Off Session Lows, Danske Comment on Positioning
Jan-14 11:26
USDCHF extended yesterday's late selloff this morning, printing a 0.9129 low following headlines suggesting a more gradual tariff introduction under the new US administration. However, the pair has since pared the majority of its session losses, suggesting that bullish trend indicators remain intact for the pair.
- Cycle highs were reached yesterday at 0.9201, and further upside momentum would place focus on 0.9224/44, the key medium-term targets for the pair. Support moves up to 0.9061, the 20-day EMA.
- Danske see "aggregate USD positioning still in stretched long territory", while CHF positioning moved further towards stretched short as of data up until January 7. While this may indicate potential for a deeper short-term correction, it underlines that market bets continue to look for further upside potential in the pair.
- The local data calendar remains light, placing the focus on US inflation data and Fed speakers this week for USDCHF sentiment.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: PPI, Fed Speak, Tsy CMB Auction
Jan-14 11:26
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 14-Jan 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism reported 105.1 vs. 101.7 prior
- 14-Jan 0830 PPI Final Demand MoM (0.4%, 0.4%), YoY (3.0%, 3.5%)
- 14-Jan 0830 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.2%, 0.3%), YoY (3.4%, 3.8%)
- 14-Jan 0830 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM (0.1%, 0.3%), YoY (3.5%, --)
- 14-Jan 1000 KC Fed Schmid (text TBA, Q&A)
- 14-Jan 1130 US Tsy $85B 42D CMB auction
- 14-Jan 1400 Federal Budget Balance (-$366.8B, -$80.0B)
- 14-Jan 1500 NY Fed Williams open remarks (text, no Q&A)
EQUITIES: European Equities are performing well
Jan-14 11:21
- The Estoxx futures is extending further gains, the US lags, and the Tech sector in Europe leads, in second place behind Auto&Parts.
- The Tech sector (SX8P) is up 1.3% and next resistance will be at last Friday's high of 838.50.
- As noted on the European Cash Govie open, and while this is not a Tech level, the Estoxx (VGH5) still needs a pullback up to 5040.00, now at 5025.00 to reverse Friday's post US Data sell off.
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