NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Falls
Feb-12 12:10
TTF front month has extended losses through the morning to trade at the lowest since 7 February after reports stated the EC is weighing new powers to temporarily cap EU gas prices.
- TTF MAR 25 down 4% at 55.44€/MWh
- The European Commission is weighing new powers to temporarily cap EU gas prices as part of discussions around its “clean industrial deal” document to be presented next month sources said to the FT.
- A resolution on who will finance gas into storage is expected in the next couple of weeks with “some incentives” expected, said Vitol CEO Russell Hardy cited by Bloomberg.
- Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to fall further below normal into the coming weekend before seeing a potential recovery back towards normal late next week.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated back up to 328.6mcm/d today after dipping yesterday due to an unplanned outage at Oseberg.
- European gas storage withdrawal has risen above normal again taking stores down to 47.89% full on Feb. 10, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 56.1%.
- European LNG sendout rebounded to 460mcm/d on Feb. 10 after a dip lower over the weekend and compared to an average of 428mcm/d so far in February.
- Ukraine’s gas import demand is set to rise further on Wednesday as they seek European supplies to meet shortfalls following sustained attacks by Russia.
- LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities decreased 10.8% w/w on Feb. 9 to 2.15m tons, according to data released by the trade ministry cited by Bloomberg.
- TotalEnergies set to supply Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation with 400k tons/4 cargoes of LNG per year, Bloomberg reports.
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SONIA: SONIA FIX - 13/01/25
Jan-13 12:03
SONIA FIX - ICE/Bloomberg.
- TISONI1M 4.6693 -0.0168
- TISONI3M 4.5883 -0.0002
- TISONI6M 4.5441 0.0099
- TISONI1Y 4.5044 0.0271
FOREX: Analyst FX Views Amid Strengthening USD Trend
Jan-13 12:03
- *Goldman Sachs expect the dollar to rally by about 5% over the coming year on the realization of new tariffs and continued US outperformance. Even with this upgrade, GS still see the risks tilted towards more dollar strength, and are extending the target on their long USDSEK trade recommendation to 11.60, in line with our new 3m forecast, (revised stop to 11.00).
*ING think the defensive currencies of JPY & CHF can outperform on the crosses, while commodity and emerging currencies should take the brunt of the higher US rate story. Indeed, AUDUSD is not far from 0.60, where we could start to hear speculation over impending RBA intervention. - *SocGen: There is, in sum, a lot of US exceptionalism, and a lot of monetary policy divergence, already ‘in the price’. That, however, won’t stop the market overshooting. The current Bloomberg survey consensus forecast is for EURUSD to be at 1.04 at mid-year, could easily become a consensus forecast that we will be below parity.
- *BofA: Potentially higher trade uncertainty and relative monetary policy keep BofA cautious on EUR in the near term. But they are also getting concerned Euro area bearishness per se is getting "stretched", and some positions could get squeezed. EURJPY lower remains their preferred bearish EUR expression, while also favouring EURCAD downside, partly on their quant signals.
- *JP Morgan Tech: A break below 1.02 in EURUSD turns JPM's attention to the next support that includes the 1.009 Nov 2022 pattern breakout and then the 0.9909 Sep 2022 78.6% retrace.
- *MUFG: Even if there was a second consecutive month of softer US inflation it is difficult to see it triggering a significant dovish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations at the current juncture and reversal of US dollar strength given inflationary fears related to Trump’s policy agenda.
- *Rabobank: Heightened expectations of a February BoE rate cut would likely put the GBPUSD 1.20 level in view. Rabo have brought forward their forecast of GBP1.20 to a 1-to-3-month view (from 6 months).
EQUITIES: Estoxx Put Spread
Jan-13 11:58
SX5E (16th May) 4400/4300ps, bought for 11.3 and 11.4 in 6k.
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