NATGAS: Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Falls
Feb-13 12:18
TTF front month is extending declines under pressure by the prospect of peace talks over the Ukraine war and as countries push for the EU to relax gas storage targets.
- TTF MAR 25 down 6.6% at 51.97€/MWh
- President Trump is likely to meet Russian President Putin in person in Saudi Arabia some time. Trump has said negotiations will begin imminently but there is a long way to go before there is a truce.
- Talks of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal may pressure TTF in the near-term, but are likely to have a neutral long-term impact, Platts said, with little likelihood of resuming Russia-EU flows.
- At the meeting of the Gas Coordination Group in Brussels on Thursday, a number of countries will push for an easing of targets designed to ensure inventories are 90% full by Nov. 1, according to Bloomberg.
- Cold temperatures are forecast for NW and central Europe until mid next week before turning milder.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are back down at 318.6mcm/d today due to unplanned “process problems” reducing capacity at Troll and Kristin, Gassco shows.
- LNG supply volumes departing for Europe in January 2025 rose to approximately 11mtpa, compared to an average of about 9.6mtpa over 2022-2024, according to Timera Energy.
- European gas storage withdrawals are above normal again as stores fall to 47.24% full on Feb. 11, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 55.7%.
- European LNG sendout remains relatively unchanged at 459mcm/d on Feb. 11 compared to an average of 440mcm/d over the previous week.
- Ukraine is set to increase its gas imports by a further 10% on Thursday to around 25 million cubic meters according to transmission data.
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Historical bullets
CROSS ASSET: Broader demand for the Dollar as US Yields edge higher
Jan-14 12:15
- USDJPY breaks through its intraday high, as just pointed taking its cue from the push lower in US Treasuries, US 10yr Yield is close to test the 4.80% level that held Yesterday.
- There isn't much in terms of resistance in the USDJPY at current prices, and we are seeing instead 158.87 High Jan 10 next.
- GBP, CAD, NOK, AUD are all testing their session lows, with broader offers also emerging against the NOK, CNH, NZD, CZK, and CHF.
US: Hegseth Is First Trump Cabinet Nominee To Face Senate Scrutiny
Jan-14 12:05
Defense Secretary nominee, Pete Hegseth, will become the first of US President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominations to face Senate scrutiny when he appears before the Senate Armed Services Committee at 09:30 ET 14:30 GMT. LIVESTREAM
- Hegseth will receive a grilling from Democrats over personal misconduct allegations and a lack of managerial experience. Today's hearing will set the tone for upcoming hearings with other embattled nominees - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Health Secretary), Kash Patel (FBI Director), and Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence) - who are yet to have hearings scheduled.
- Key panel Democrat Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) said: “I'm interested in hearing about how [Hegseth's] experience has prepared him for the job of managing 3 million people and an $850 billion a year budget,”
- According to prepared remarks, Hegseth will argue that US national security will be bolstered by “someone with dust on his boots [at] the helm” of the Department of Defense, pledging to give "new defense companies" a better chance to win contracts, and rapidly deploy emerging technologies.
- If the Armed Services Committee votes to discharge Hegseth’s nomination to the full Senate, he can drop three Republican votes and remain on track for confirmation without requiring Democrat support.
- Data from Polymarket shows Hegseth has weathered an initial wave of opposition, with an implied probability of 85% of Senate confirmation.
Figure 1: Trump’s Defense Secretary, % Implied Probability of Confirmation
Source: Polymarket
US TSY FUTURES: New lows for Tnotes, Yield levels are in Focus
Jan-14 11:59
- US Tnotes found some support at the 4.80% Mark Yesterday, and while the street wait on the US CPI Tomorrow, PPI Today, some desks will again be watching the 4.80% level, tested a 4.8026% high and a 107.06 low in TYH5.
Looking further out and in case of upside traction in Yield, most Investors will be eyeing the big 5% level:
- 4.8500% = 106.30.
- 4.9000% = 106.20.
- 4.9500% = 106.10.
- 5.0000% = 106.00+.
- 5.0187% = 105.28+ (2023 high and highest since July 07).
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg):
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