OIL PRODUCTS: Mid-Day Oil Products Summary: Cracks Diverge On Day
Feb-13 12:19
US diesel cracks have continued to lose ground today, with EIA data showing an unexpected build in distillates and a large drop in implied demand. Gasoline cracks are rising following an unexpected decline in stocks in yesterday’s data.
- US ULSD crack down 0.4$/bbl at 31.07$/bbl
- US gasoline crack up 0.4$/bbl at 16.46$/bbl
- US 321 crack up 0.1$/bbl at 21.33$/bbl
- EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Feb 07: Gasoline stocks -3,035 vs Exp +545, Implied mogas demand +248, Distillate stocks +135 vs Exp -1,478, Implied dist demand -914
- The PBF Energy 156k b/d Martinez refinery near San Francisco may need 45 days or more to assess the damage from a fire on Feb. 1, according to Bloomberg sources.
- Singapore's onshore fuel oil stockpiles rose for the second week, hitting a three-week high above 20 million barrels according to Enterprise data.
- China’s refined oil exports stood at 2.46m mt in January, down 17.45% on the same period in 2024, according to OilChem citing shipping fixtures.
- The Dangote refinery’s utilisation rate should reach 65% by Q4, with Euro VI-grade gasoline production commencing in Q2, Kpler said.
- Port of Fujairah oil product stocks climbed 10% in the week ended Feb 10 according to FOIZ data.
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Historical bullets
CROSS ASSET: Broader demand for the Dollar as US Yields edge higher
Jan-14 12:15
- USDJPY breaks through its intraday high, as just pointed taking its cue from the push lower in US Treasuries, US 10yr Yield is close to test the 4.80% level that held Yesterday.
- There isn't much in terms of resistance in the USDJPY at current prices, and we are seeing instead 158.87 High Jan 10 next.
- GBP, CAD, NOK, AUD are all testing their session lows, with broader offers also emerging against the NOK, CNH, NZD, CZK, and CHF.
US: Hegseth Is First Trump Cabinet Nominee To Face Senate Scrutiny
Jan-14 12:05
Defense Secretary nominee, Pete Hegseth, will become the first of US President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominations to face Senate scrutiny when he appears before the Senate Armed Services Committee at 09:30 ET 14:30 GMT. LIVESTREAM
- Hegseth will receive a grilling from Democrats over personal misconduct allegations and a lack of managerial experience. Today's hearing will set the tone for upcoming hearings with other embattled nominees - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Health Secretary), Kash Patel (FBI Director), and Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence) - who are yet to have hearings scheduled.
- Key panel Democrat Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) said: “I'm interested in hearing about how [Hegseth's] experience has prepared him for the job of managing 3 million people and an $850 billion a year budget,”
- According to prepared remarks, Hegseth will argue that US national security will be bolstered by “someone with dust on his boots [at] the helm” of the Department of Defense, pledging to give "new defense companies" a better chance to win contracts, and rapidly deploy emerging technologies.
- If the Armed Services Committee votes to discharge Hegseth’s nomination to the full Senate, he can drop three Republican votes and remain on track for confirmation without requiring Democrat support.
- Data from Polymarket shows Hegseth has weathered an initial wave of opposition, with an implied probability of 85% of Senate confirmation.
Figure 1: Trump’s Defense Secretary, % Implied Probability of Confirmation
Source: Polymarket
US TSY FUTURES: New lows for Tnotes, Yield levels are in Focus
Jan-14 11:59
- US Tnotes found some support at the 4.80% Mark Yesterday, and while the street wait on the US CPI Tomorrow, PPI Today, some desks will again be watching the 4.80% level, tested a 4.8026% high and a 107.06 low in TYH5.
Looking further out and in case of upside traction in Yield, most Investors will be eyeing the big 5% level:
- 4.8500% = 106.30.
- 4.9000% = 106.20.
- 4.9500% = 106.10.
- 5.0000% = 106.00+.
- 5.0187% = 105.28+ (2023 high and highest since July 07).
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg):
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