MNI NBP Preview - Feb 2025: Placeholder Before March

Executive Summary:

• Consensus calls for another on-hold rate decision.
• Governor Glapinski is expected to keep his hawkish bias.
• After this meeting, the focus will turn to the March inflation projection.

Full preview including a summary of sell-side views here: MNI NBP Preview - February 2025.pdf

The upcoming meeting of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is poised to be a placeholder. Held just three weeks after the previous meeting, with interim data flow providing mixed signals, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) is poised to stand pat on rates, leaving the reference rate at 5.75%. Limited room for surprises in the rate decision turns the spotlight to Thursday’s press conference with Governor Adam Glapiński again. The market will be on the lookout for signs of any adjustments to the Governor’s ultra-hawkish stance, in the light of the recent bout of zloty appreciation and further hints from his colleagues suggesting that most of them do see potential for rate cuts by the end of this year.