EU CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Moncler; reports solid results
Firm results as Moncler shows the clearest signs of a turn in macro - it even talks up the Chinese consumer (non-consensus). Regardless paints Kering as the clear 4Q underperformer. Reminder Bernard Arnault (using LVMH) took a stake in this co late last year and though Moncler is cashed up and been rumoured in the past as a Burberry suitor, it again dismisses any M&A appetite.
- Q4 +8% vs. Q3 -3%
- Asia +11% (Q3 -2%), Americas +5% (Q3 -6%), EMEA +3% (Q3 -3%)
- mid to HSD contribution from store openings in DTC channel (growth in total was +9%)
By cluster/nationality;
- Saw double digit growth in Chinese spend - both in mainland and in overseas spend
- strong throughout the quarter/does not see this being skewed by a earlier Chinese New Year
- Conditions remained firm in Jan but obviously skewed by CNY
- This rebound (and size) is not being reported by peers
- Japanese weaker (was slightly negative in Q3)
- Europeans single digit growth (vs. flat in Q3) - consensus
- Americans HSD growth (from flat in Q3) - consensus to tad stronger
- A line that is becoming the norm this quarter; "I think the U.S. market represents probably one of the largest opportunity for Moncler for the years to come."
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German GDP fell 0.1% Q/Q in Q4 2024 according to Destatis' preliminary estimate. That follows Q3's +0.1%, and brings total 2024 GDP growth to -0.2% Y/Y on a non-adjusted basis (in line with consensus, following -0.3% in 2023) and calendar-adjusted basis (-0.1% 2023).
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