NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Climbs
Feb-14 19:53
Henry Hub continued its ongoing rally since late Jan, supported by record LNG feedgas flows and colder weather forecasts across most of the US.
- US Natgas MAR 25 up 2.9% at 3.73$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 up 2.7% at 3.72$/mmbtu
- The US gas rig count was up 1 on the week to 101, according to Baker Hughes. This is down 19 rigs, or 15.8% on the year
- US natural gas storage is likely to see an above-average draw of 168 bcf in the week to Feb. 14, according to a Reuters survey.
- Trump signed conditional approval for Commonwealth LNG, according to a Bloomberg headline.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas has risen to a new record high at 15.40bcf/d today: Bloomberg.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand has eased back to 109.8bcf/d from a high of 122bcf/d yesterday: Bloomberg.
- The NOAA forecast again shows below normal in most of the US in the 6–10-day period but western areas are warmer in the 8–14-day period.
- US domestic natural gas production is estimated at 106.0bcf/d today, BNEF shows, holding steady after a drop from a high of 108.4bcf/d on Feb. 7.
- Mexico could use the recently completed Southeast Gateway pipeline in the Gulf of Mexico to store natural gas, amid growing trade tensions with the US: TC Energy.
- Any potential resumption of Russian gas flows to Europe likely to be modest initially, according to analysts cited by Montel.
- Summer 2025 TTF prices would fall 36%-56% below the €50/MWh base case if Russia gas flows through Ukraine returned to pre-war levels, according to Goldman Sachs cited by Reuters.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Pierces Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
Jan-15 19:51
- RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26
- RES 1: 6035.50 61.8% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg
- PRICE: 5996.25 @ 19:38 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 5809.00 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 3: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present. However, today’s gains have resulted in a print above resistance at 5987.43, the 50-day EMA. The average marks an important short-term pivot level and a clear break of it would signal a possible reversal. This would open 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
COMMODITIES: WTI Rises Above $80, Precious Metals Rally Further
Jan-15 19:47
- WTI has broken the $80/bbl level today, supported by the drawdown in US crude stockpiles as well as the IEA’s downward revision for the 2025 oil supply surplus. A weaker USD following softer US CPI data is also bullish.
- WTI Feb 25 is up by 3.5% at $80.2/bbl.
- The IEA expects global oil inventories to grow by 725,000 bpd in 2025, compared to 950,000 bpd previously.
- Meanwhile, the US Energy Department is “quite likely” to refill the depleted SPR under the incoming Trump administration, according to Chris Wright, Trump’s nominee for Energy Secretary.
- WTI futures have pierced $80.14, the Apr 12 ’24 high and a key medium-term resistance. Next resistance is at $80.60, the 3.00 projection of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing.
- Spot gold has risen by 0.6% today to $2,694/oz, benefitting from the round of slightly-softer-than-expected core and supercore US CPI figures.
- The recovery in gold opens $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.
- Meanwhile, silver is outperforming and has risen by 2.6% to $30.7/oz
- Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high.
- Copper has also rallied by 1.3% to $440/lb, the highest level since Nov 8.
- The move through key short-term resistance at $433.50, the Dec 12 high, opens $452.85, the Nov 5 ‘24 high and a key resistance.
US DATA: Partial Inflation Progress For Regional Fed CPI Metrics
Jan-15 19:47
Regional Fed inflation series showed some further slow disinflationary progress in December but some metrics continue to broadly plateau.
- Cleveland Fed median CPI: 3.85% Y/Y in Dec after 3.89% in Nov, for a fresh low since Dec 2021.
- Cleveland Fed trimmed mean: 3.20% Y/Y in Dec after 3.22% in Nov, having averaged 3.20% Y/Y since August in a particularly narrow range.
- Atlanta Fed sticky core CPI: 3.75% Y/Y in Dec after 3.87% in Nov, for its lowest since Dec 2021.
- Atlanta Fed sticky core CPI ex shelter: 2.80% Y/Y in Dec after 2.94% in Nov, for its lowest since Dec 2023.
