NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Climbs

• RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 3: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 2: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26 
• RES 1: 6035.50 61.8% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg           
• PRICE: 5996.25 @ 19:38 GMT Jan 15 
• SUP 1: 5809.00 Low Jan 13        
• SUP 2: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 
• SUP 3: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 4: 5658.00 Low Sep 12 ‘24

A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present. However, today’s gains have resulted in a print above resistance at 5987.43, the 50-day EMA. The average marks an important short-term pivot level and a clear break of it would signal a possible reversal. This would open 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.

• WTI has broken the $80/bbl level today, supported by the drawdown in US crude stockpiles as well as the IEA’s downward revision for the 2025 oil supply surplus. A weaker USD following softer US CPI data is also bullish.
• WTI Feb 25 is up by 3.5% at $80.2/bbl.
• The IEA expects global oil inventories to grow by 725,000 bpd in 2025, compared to 950,000 bpd previously.
• Meanwhile, the US Energy Department is “quite likely” to refill the depleted SPR under the incoming Trump administration, according to Chris Wright, Trump’s nominee for Energy Secretary.
• WTI futures have pierced $80.14, the Apr 12 ’24 high and a key medium-term resistance. Next resistance is at $80.60, the 3.00 projection of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing.
• Spot gold has risen by 0.6% today to $2,694/oz, benefitting from the round of slightly-softer-than-expected core and supercore US CPI figures.
• The recovery in gold opens $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.
• Meanwhile, silver is outperforming and has risen by 2.6% to $30.7/oz
• Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high.
• Copper has also rallied by 1.3% to $440/lb, the highest level since Nov 8.
• The move through key short-term resistance at $433.50, the Dec 12 high, opens $452.85, the Nov 5 ‘24 high and a key resistance.

Regional Fed inflation series showed some further slow disinflationary progress in December but some metrics continue to broadly plateau. 

• Cleveland Fed median CPI: 3.85% Y/Y in Dec after 3.89% in Nov, for a fresh low since Dec 2021.  
• Cleveland Fed trimmed mean: 3.20% Y/Y in Dec after 3.22% in Nov, having averaged 3.20% Y/Y since August in a particularly narrow range.
• Atlanta Fed sticky core CPI: 3.75% Y/Y in Dec after 3.87% in Nov, for its lowest since Dec 2021.
• Atlanta Fed sticky core CPI ex shelter: 2.80% Y/Y in Dec after 2.94% in Nov, for its lowest since Dec 2023.