PERU: New Cars Sales At 12-Year High Ahead Of BCRP Meeting
Feb-13 17:55
- Ahead of this evening’s BCRP meeting, latest vehicle sales data suggest that the domestic economy is continuing to perform well. In January, new car sales rose by 18.4% y/y to their highest monthly level since January 2013, according to Scotiabank. They say that this figure can be attributed to improving real income levels on the back of rising formal employment and benign inflation pressures.
- Following the interest rate decision later, January labour market and December economic activity figures are due on Saturday. The unemployment rate fell to a 10-year low of 5.5% in December and analysts see economic growth holding at 3.9% y/y in the final month of the year, which would take 2024 full-year GDP growth to 3.2%.
- While inflation data keep the door open to a further cut, domestic activity figures therefore do not point to any urgency for further easing at this juncture.
- USDPEN is broadly unchanged ahead of the rate decision, with the pair continuing to trade within the recent tight 3.70-3.72 range. BBVA sees USDPEN as likely to rebound into the mid-3.70s in the upcoming sessions. They remain biased to be short USDPEN above 3.75, particularly in the run-up to the annual tax season in March.
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OPTIONS: Large Sonia Call Spread Buying Tuesday
Jan-14 17:52
Tuesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:
- RXG5 125.5p, bought for 1 in 2.2k
- RXH5 135/136cs bought for 4.5 in 7.5k
- ERM5 97.625/97.75/97.875c fly vs 97.4375/97.3125ps, bought the fly for 0.25 and half in 9k.
- SFIM5 95.75/96.00cs, bought for 6.75 in 24k.
- SFIM5 95.70/96.00cs, bought for 8.75 and 9 in 20.5k
- SFIZ5 96.35/97.00cs x3 vs 95.60p x1, bought the cs for -2 in 10k total.
- SFIZ5 95.90/96.05 call spread, bought for 6 in 15k
- 0NM5 96.00/96.20/96.30/96.40c condor, bought for 4.25 in 10k.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: CPI, Fed Speak, Beige Book
Jan-14 17:50
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 15-Jan 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-3.7%, --)
- 15-Jan 0830 CPI MoM (0.3%, 0.4%), YoY (2.7%, 2.9%)
- 15-Jan 0830 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (0.3%, 0.3%), YoY (3.3%, 3.3%)
- 15-Jan 0830 CPI Index NSA (315.493, 315.615)
- 15-Jan 0830 CPI Core Index SA (322.657, 323.400)
- 15-Jan 0920 Richmond Fed Barkin, Maryland event (text, Q&A)
- 15-Jan 1000 MN Fed Kashkari fireside chat, (no text, Q&A)
- 15-Jan 1100 NY Fed Williams keynote address CBIA eco-summit (text, Q&A)
- Jan-15 1200 Chicago Fed Goolsbee Midwest economics forum (no text, Q&A)
- 15-Jan 1400 Fed Beige Book
BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Pressure Continues
Jan-14 17:45
Bunds underperformed Gilts Tuesday, ahead of inflation data Wednesday.
- After a constructive start, regional FI softened amid EGB supply, oil prices and equities moving off lows, and continued questions surrounding French and UK politics and fiscal policy.
- A softer-than-expected US producer price report saw yields briefly hit session lows before retracing higher over the course of the day.
- The German curve leaned bear steeper on the day, with the belly underperforming overall as yields hit fresh multi-month highs across the curve, while the UK curve was mixed.
- Periphery/semi-core spreads were flat/tighter, with OAT/Bund roughly steady through new French Prime Minister Bayrou's policy address.
- Focus early Wednesday is on UK December CPI (MNI's preview here), with consensus eyeing a downtick in Y/Y core and services inflation; later we hear from BoE's Taylor, while US CPI is the main global event later in the session.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 2.6bps at 2.319%, 5-Yr is up 6.6bps at 2.462%, 10-Yr is up 3.9bps at 2.652%, and 30-Yr is up 4.6bps at 2.856%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 0.4bps at 4.605%, 5-Yr is up 1.1bps at 4.613%, 10-Yr is up 0.4bps at 4.889%, and 30-Yr is up 1.1bps at 5.449%.
- Italian BTP spread down 2.2bps at 118.8bps / French OAT down 1.4bps at 83.1bps
