US DATA: No Surprises In Jobless Claims Report

US President Donald Trump's Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, told Fox News that Trump will make a "massive" infrastructure announcement on Tuesday. Bloomberg reports that the announcement is expected at 16:00 ET 21:00 GMT.

• Leavitt: "I can confirm the American people won't be hearing from me today because they'll be hearing from the leader of the free world, President Trump will be speaking to the press later this afternoon at the White House, and we will have a big infrastructure announcement."
• Leavitt declined to expand on the content of the announcement, however it could signal the Trump administration will seek to reclaim infrastructure as a key area of focus in light of former President Joe Biden's broadly popular Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
• On the 2024 presidential election campaign trail, Democrats regularly referenced Trump's failure to enact meaningful infrastructure legislation as a net positive for Democrats.  
• As the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law is popular amongst Republican lawmakers and voters, it is unlikely that Trump will seek to unwind or stall any of the legislation's implementation. 

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• GoC yields have fallen 2bps through 2-10Y tenors on the December CPI report (vs 1-1.5bps for Tsys) but USDCAD sees very little net impact.
• The Can-US 2Y yield differential at -138bps would be its lowest close this cycle at lows since the late 1990s.
• BoC-dated OIS meanwhile pushes a little closer to fully supporting a 25bp cut from the BoC next week, with ~21bp priced vs ~19bp pre-release.
• Main outturns very close to median expectations which was impressive considering the wide range of analyst views on the back of uncertainty over the impact from the temporary GST/HST tax holiday.
• Headline CPI came in at 1.8% Y/Y (BBG median 1.9, our survey of analysts 1.8) in a range that spanned from 1.2-2.1% Y/Y.
• The average of the BoC's preferred median and trim CPI was as expected at 2.45% Y/Y, averaging 2.6% in Q4 to confirm a beat of the 2.3% the BoC had forecast back in October. It will provide new forecasts next week.