OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: WTI Plunges
Feb-21 19:48
WTI erased all previous gains from this week after a sell off sparked by Reuters said the US is pushing for a resumption of Kurdish oil exports.
- WTI APR 25 down 3% at 70.3$/bbl
- The US oil rig count: 488 (7) - down 18 rigs, or 3.6% on the year.
- US administration asked Iraq to resume Kurdish oil exports quickly or face sanctions alongside Iran – sources told Reuters.
- US pressure to restart Kurdish oil exports is slightly bearish for Brent crude sentiment but fundamentals are little changed, Platts said.
- State media reporting comments from Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov. Says that "there is the understanding of the need for a Trump-Putin meeting" but that there are "no concrete details yet."
- Tengiz oil supplies through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium system continue uninterrupted, according to Tengizchevroil.
- A Bloomberg survey showed more than 70% of respondents expect OPEC will postpone the output increase scheduled for April by 1-3 months.
- OPEC+ is expected to delay its planned April production increase amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties, according to ANZ Group.
- Bloomberg reports US-bound supertankers rose to the highest in almost four months, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. The flow to India climbed to the highest since January 2023.
- Guyana's average oil output fell to 620,000 bpd in January, from 656,000 bpd in December, the Natural Resources ministry said on Friday in a report.
- Ecuador’s OCP heavy crude pipeline was shut down late Thursday near its western terminus due to the impact of landslides after heavy rains.
- Reuters reports North Sea Johan Sverdrup crude traded lower on Friday, while U.S. WTI Midland prices dropped following a lower offer.
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US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Holding Near Record Highs, Earnings Resume
Jan-22 19:37
- Stocks are drifting near midday highs late Wednesday semiconductor stocks helping SPX Eminis climb back near early December all-time highs (6178.75).
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 110.69 points (0.25%) at 44137.46, S&P E-Minis up 41.25 points (0.68%) at 6126, Nasdaq up 251.1 points (1.3%) at 20009.01.
- Information Technology and Communication Services sectors continued to outperform in the second half, chip stocks supporting the former as noted: Monolithic Power +8.53%, Nvidia +4.63%, Lam Research +3.66%, while Applied Materials gained 3.01%.
- Interactive media and entertainment stocks led gainers in the Communication Services sector: Netflix still up over 10% after some profit taking in the second half as subscriptions soar, Warner Bros +2.35%, Meta +1.77%.
- On the flipside, Utilities and Real Estate sectors continued to underperform in late trade, gas and multi-energy providers weighing on the former: Dominion Energy -4.54%, PG&E -3.01% while Edison International declined 3.63%.
- Investment trusts, particularly health care and industrial REITs weighed on the Real Estate sector: Ventas -2.95%, Healthpeak Properties -2.56% and Prologis -2.0%.
- Earnings expected to be announced after the close include: Steel Dynamics, Discover Financial Services, Hexcel Corp, Alcoa Corp, Knight-Swift Transportation and Kinder Morgan Inc.
US TSY OPTIONS: Large Low Delta 10Y Put Buy, Opener
Jan-22 19:36
- +50,000 TYH5 102 puts 1 ref 108-18. Total volume in the OTM put only 2,900 coming into the session.
FED: MNI Hawk-Dove Spectrum Shifts, Easing Bias Remains Overall (2/2)
Jan-22 19:23
We’ve updated our Hawk-Dove Spectrum for 2025, with the rotation of regional president voters bringing in Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (dove), KC’s Schmid (hawk), St Louis’s Musalem (hawk), and Boston’s Collins (neutral/dove) for 2024. (Out are the neutral/hawkish Bostic and Barkin, hawk Hammack, and neutral/dovish Daly).
- All participants remain on the dovish side of the Hawk-Dove line in absolute terms, reflecting the Committee’s overall easing bias.
- However most of the Dots have been moved in a more hawkish direction in the last 6 weeks, in light of the more limited cuts seen in the December Dot Plot and the growing sentiment that the FOMC can remain patient in deciding when to cut next.
- We now regard Hammack as the FOMC’s biggest hawk, though only marginally over her colleagues Bowman, Schmid and Musalem.
- Conversely, Gov Waller has ensconced himself as one of the pre-eminent doves on the Committee, seeing potential for 3-4 cuts this year, and possibly restarting the easing cycle earlier than market pricing implies (though he spoke after the December CPI data).
