OIL PRODUCTS: Oil Products End of Day Summary: Cracks Diverge

• WTI has broken the $80/bbl level today, supported by the drawdown in US crude stockpiles as well as the IEA’s downward revision for the 2025 oil supply surplus. A weaker USD following softer US CPI data is also bullish.
• WTI Feb 25 is up by 3.5% at $80.2/bbl.
• The IEA expects global oil inventories to grow by 725,000 bpd in 2025, compared to 950,000 bpd previously.
• Meanwhile, the US Energy Department is “quite likely” to refill the depleted SPR under the incoming Trump administration, according to Chris Wright, Trump’s nominee for Energy Secretary.
• WTI futures have pierced $80.14, the Apr 12 ’24 high and a key medium-term resistance. Next resistance is at $80.60, the 3.00 projection of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing.
• Spot gold has risen by 0.6% today to $2,694/oz, benefitting from the round of slightly-softer-than-expected core and supercore US CPI figures.
• The recovery in gold opens $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development.
• Meanwhile, silver is outperforming and has risen by 2.6% to $30.7/oz
• Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high.
• Copper has also rallied by 1.3% to $440/lb, the highest level since Nov 8.
• The move through key short-term resistance at $433.50, the Dec 12 high, opens $452.85, the Nov 5 ‘24 high and a key resistance.

Regional Fed inflation series showed some further slow disinflationary progress in December but some metrics continue to broadly plateau. 

• Cleveland Fed median CPI: 3.85% Y/Y in Dec after 3.89% in Nov, for a fresh low since Dec 2021.  
• Cleveland Fed trimmed mean: 3.20% Y/Y in Dec after 3.22% in Nov, having averaged 3.20% Y/Y since August in a particularly narrow range.
• Atlanta Fed sticky core CPI: 3.75% Y/Y in Dec after 3.87% in Nov, for its lowest since Dec 2021.
• Atlanta Fed sticky core CPI ex shelter: 2.80% Y/Y in Dec after 2.94% in Nov, for its lowest since Dec 2023. 

• Stocks surged higher Wednesday after core inflation data slowed for December. After a couple rounds of profit taking major indexes looked to test session highs again in late trade with the DJIA up up 706.28 points (1.66%) at 43225.25, S&P E-Minis up 105 points (1.79%) at 5987.5, Nasdaq up 445.2 points (2.3%) at 19489.8.
• Financials, Communication Services and Information Technology sectors continued to outperform in late trade, banks led gainers after better than expected earnings were reported by Blackrock +4.72%, Bank of NY Melon +7.97%, Wells Fargo +7.19%, JP Morgan +1.85%, Goldman Sachs +6.03% and Citigroup +7.33% this morning.
• Interactive media and entertainment shares helped the Communication Services sector rebound after declining the last couple sessions: Meta +4.27%, Alphabet +3.10%, Netflix gained 2.37%. Same for IT with semiconductor shares trading stronger despite ongoing curbs on China exports: Micron Technologies +6.00%, Qualcomm +3.5%, Advanced Micro Devices +3.38%, Nvidia +2.91%.
• On the flipside, Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors underperformed in late trade, pharmaceuticals weighing on the former with Viatris -2.94%, AbbVie -2.40%, Charles River Labs -1.56%. Food manufacturers weighed on the Consumer Staples sector: Hershey -3.01%, Conagra -1.98% and Kroger -1.3%.