CONSUMER STAPLES: Phillip Morris; FY results
(PM; A2/ A-/A Neg) (+7% in pre-market)
A stellar year from PM who may be demonstrating the benefits of investing into the future over showering equity holders with cash (so much so it went as far as buying a Pharma a few years ago - that one did not work out). Equities should break through all time highs again on the cash open.
- 4Q sales +7%, gross profits +13%, EBIT +12% running on a 36.3% margin (+140bps)
- Smoke free +9% vs. combustibles +6%
- note combustibles will be on pricing; by volume Heated tobacco units (vapes etc.) +5%, Oral/pouches +22%, Cigarettes +1%.
- Leaves FY revenue +10%, EBIT +15% and on a 38.8% margin (+180bps)
- Smoke-free at 40% of revenues.
FY25 guidance;
- Revenue growth of +6-8%, EBIT growth of +10.5-12.5%.
- Net leverage target of 2.0x by '26 unchanged.
- currently reports g/n at 2.9/2,7x (down -0.4x yoy)
- No buybacks
- $1.5b in capex including into expanding Zyn (nicotine pouches) capacity
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EGB SYNDICATION: Slovenia 30-year: Final terms
- Size: E1bln (MNI expected E1.0-1.5bln)
- Spread set earlier at MS+128bp (Guidance was MS+140bps area then MS+135bps area)
- Books in excess of E2.1bln (inc E410mln JLM interest)
- Maturity Date: 14 April 2055
- Settlement Date: 14 January 2025 (T+5)
- Joint Bookrunners: Deutsche Bank, Erste Group, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, HSBC, J.P. Morgan (B&D) and OTP Banka Slovenia
- ISIN: SI0002104873
- Timing: Allocations and pricing shortly
From market source
GERMANY: Jean-Marie Le Pen Dead At 96-AFP
AFP reports that former far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen has died aged 96. Le Pen co-founded the Front National in 1972, with the party's rise under Jean-Marie Le Pen culminating in his shock appearance in the 2002 presidential election run-off against incumbent Jacques Chirac.
- His daughter Marine Le Pen assumed the party leadership in 2012, and has since sought to present a more electable face of the far-right. Jean-Marie Le Pen was defeated by a margin of 82% to 18% in 2002, compared to margins of 66%-34% and 59%-41% in 2017 and 2022 respectively for Marine Le Pen.
- Jean-Marie was expelled from the Front National in 2015 amid a feud with Marine as she attempted to 'detoxify' the party's brand (the party was renamed Rassemblement National in 2018), making Jean-Marie a sidelined figure. As such, his passing is unlikely to have any significant impact on the French political landscape amid continued efforts by the Bayrou gov't to reach agreement with opposition groups on passing a 2025 state budget.
PIPELINE: Corporate Issuance Roundup: $6B EIB on Tap
Hard act to follow after Monday's record $59.55B corporate debt issuance - would have been a record even without $12B Saudi Arabia & $8.5B Mexico multi-tranche issuance. European Investment Bank (EIB) leads so far today with $6B 5Y SOFR:
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/07 $6B European Investment Bank (EIB) 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/07 $500M DBJ WNG 10Y SOFR+73
- 01/07 $Benchmark World Bank 7Y +54
- 01/07 $Benchmark ADB 3Y SOFR+31
- 01/07 $Benchmark CIBC 5Y SOFR+75a
- 01/07 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken 5Y
- 01/07 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR+60a
- 01/07 $Benchmark Santander 5Y +135a, 10Y +160a
- 01/07 $Benchmark Kexim 3Y +55a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +75a, 10Y +90a
- 01/07 $Benchmark SMFG 5.25Y +100, 5.25Y SOFR, 7Y +110a, 10Y +120a
