POWER: Poland's March Rebounds to Fresh High
Poland’s March rebounded to reach a fresh high to resist price falls in European coal, with upward movements in EU ETS and downward revisions of average temperatures in Warsaw supporting – temps forecast to drop to as low as -9.9C on 19 Feb. Works at 630MW Plock gas-fired power plant will start over 7-11 February, which could support spot prices over the period, coupled with cooler temperatures.
- Poland’s March baseload power settled at PLN450.75/MWh compared to its settled price of PLN445.20/MWh on 4 February, according to data on Polish power exchange TGE.
- The contract reached a fresh all-time high, surpassing its previous high on 31 January at PLN445.99/MWh.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.3% at 81.93 EUR/MT
- Rotterdam Coal MAR 25 down 0.3% at 104.75 USD/MT at 14:00 GMT
- The latest bi-weekly Polish Primary Market Auction (Phase 4 - CAP3) cleared at higher at €77.87/ton CO2e, compared with €76.71/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 22 January according to EEX.
- This has likely pushed up costs for fossil-fired generators.
- The March contract traded 15 times in 16 lots from 11 lots exchanged in the previous session.
- The contract opened at PLN448.10/MWh and fell slightly to PLN448/MWh– the daily low – before steadily rising to a daily high of PLN452/MWh and dropping to PLN451/MWh at the end of the session.
- Average temperatures in Warsaw are seen on a general downward trend throughout the 6-10 day ECMWF forecasts to flip below the seasonal average on 9 February. Temperature will drop to as low at -7.5C and -9.9C over 18-19 February.
- Closer in, the day-ahead rebounded to PLN653.66/MWh for Thursday delivery from PLN587.89/MWh for Wednesday as wind is expected to drop to 11% load factor tomorrow from 15% today.
- Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at a 32% load factor on 7 February (Fri) – likely dropping prices from the previous session.
However, works at 630MW Plock gas-fired power plant will start over 7-11 February and the 454MW curtailment at the 910MW Jaworzno 2 coal plant has been extended again to 8 February from 7 February.
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US-JAPAN: Ishiba Calls For US Steel Review, Warns Of Future Investment Concens
Japanese firm Nippon Steel filed a lawsuit challenging US President Joe Biden for exercising "unlawful political influence" over a proposed USD$14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel. The decision to block the acquisition, formalised by Biden on Friday, threatens to drive a wedge between the two countries - each other’s top foreign investors.
- Nikkei reports: “Nippon Steel asked the court to set aside Biden's order... and to instruct the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to conduct a new review of [the deal]”.
- Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told reporters today: "It is unfortunately true that there are concerns being raised within Japan's industrial world over future Japan-US investment… It's something we have to take seriously."
- Ishiba added: "...we will strongly call on the US government to take steps to dispel these concerns… They need to be able to explain clearly why there is a national security concern, or else further discussions on the matter will not work,"
- US President-elect Donald Trump said in a statement on Truth Social a short time ago: "Why would they want to sell U.S. Steel now when Tariffs will make it a much more profitable and valuable company?"
- The US Chamber of Commerce noted that Japanese investment supports nearly one million American jobs, warning the decision "could have a chilling effect on international investment in America.”
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"The Republic of Slovenia, rated A3 (positive) / AA- (positive) / A (stable), has mandated Deutsche Bank, Erste Group, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, HSBC, J.P. Morgan and OTP Banka Slovenia to lead manage a new benchmark EUR transaction with a 30-year tenor."
- "The deal is expected to be launched in the near future, subject to market conditions" (all details per Bloomberg)
- We expected a Slovenia syndication this week and saw scope for a 30-year SLOREP to be launched some time this year.
US TSY OPTIONS: Large Mar'25 10Y Put Buy
- +100,000 TYH5 106 puts, 14 ref 108-18.5 - total volume just over 105,900
