US DATA: Poor Retail Sales Bode Ill For Q1 Spending Despite Mitigating Factors

"Ireland has mandated Danske Bank, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, Goodbody, HSBC and J.P. Morgan as joint lead managers for a forthcoming EUR3bn (no-grow) long 30-year RegS benchmark transaction, maturing 18 October 2055." From market source.

• We had noted that we thought there would be an Irish syndication this week and noted the 30-year as a possibility given that there is already a May-35 IGB outstanding (that was originally issued as a 15-year bond).
• The E3bln WNG transaction size is also in line with our expectations.

• +3,781 WNH5 117-06 (+129), buy through 117-01 post-time offer at 0856:50ET, DV01 $775,000. Contributing to the latest pull higher with the contract tapping 117-07

• The strong performance for equities in the aftermath of the data has helped AUDUSD extend its recovery to 1.82% from cycle lows printed earlier in the week. The latest 45 pip bounce sees the pair pierce above initial 20-day EMA resistance, which intersects today at 0.6236.
• While a bearish trend remains intact overall, these favourable dynamics could prompt a stronger correction, targeting the 50-day average is at 0.6351.
• Rabobank have said that on the approach of Trump’s inauguration next week, the market has started to question if it has priced-in too much inflation risk into US assets. This suggests scope for profit-taking in USD long positions which could limit downside potential in AUD/USD near-term.
• Despite this, on anticipation that USD strength will be a theme of the year ahead and with Chinese economic headwinds still in focus, Rabo see risks of a move to 0.6000 in AUD/USD around the middle of 2025.