OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Key Resistance In Gold Remains Exposed

• Treasuries are looking modestly firmer, near early early London session highs as rates recover from Friday's sell-off. The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 108-19 last (+5) vs. 108-21 high on decent volumes heading into year end: just over 175k at the moment.
• Average to small year-end duration extensions: US +0.07Y, EU: +0.04Y, UK -.02Y (Bbg)
• Tsy 10Y yield at 4.5951% (-.0303), curves mixed with 2s10s -.342 at 28.950 despite overnight Block steepener: +4,276 TUH5 at 102-22.75 vs. -2,592 TYH5 108-17.5 (0256:12ET); 5s30s +1.752 at 37.159.
• Projected rate cuts into early 2025 look steady to slightly higher vs. late Friday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -13.6bp (-13.3bp), May'25 -19.5bp (-18.5bp), Jun'25 -28.8bp (-26.5bp).
• Data on tap (prior, estimate): MNI Chicago PMI (40.2, 43.0) at 0945ET, followed by Pending Home Sales at 1000ET MoM (2.0%, 0.8%), YoY (6.6%, 7.9%). Dallas Fed Mfg Activity at 1030ET (-2.7, -3.0). Dearth of scheduled Fed speak until Richmond Fed's Barkin gives keynote remarks at a Maryland Bankers assn event on January 3 at 1100ET (text & Q&A).
• Treasury auctions $84B 13W, $72B 26W bills at 1130ET followed by 75B 42D CMBs at 1300ET.

Portugal HICP rose to 3.1% Y/Y in December, its highest since June 2024 and notably above November's 2.7%. The national CPI measure also saw some acceleration, both on headline (3.01% vs 2.47% Nov) as well as on core (2.80% vs 2.61% Nov). Behind the higher CPI headline, Statistics Portugal identifies energy and unprocessed food as the predominant drivers.

• Specifically, energy CPI came in at 4.89% Y/Y (2.14% Nov, mainly driven by base effects as M/M this was +0.43%), while unprocessed food CPI was 3.42% Y/Y (1.95% prior, again partially a base effect as this was +0.50%M/M).
• CPI excl. housing accelerated just over 0.5pp, as headline, indicating that rental inflation saw a similar increase to the wider index (+0.10% M/M).
• For reference, Portugal contributes 2.4% to the overall Eurozone HICP 2024 basket.
• December flash inflation data for Ireland will be released tomorrow, with the other major releases of the December round out next week. Belgium HICP already came in at 4.4% Y/Y, decelerating four tenths vs November, while Spain HICP surprised consensus to the upside earlier today (2.8% Y/Y vs 2.6% cons).

Greenback headed into the NY crossover at the session's lowest levels - while FX markets seemed to shrug off the recovery in yields into the Friday close, the dollar's certainly chasing the US 10y yield lower so far today, with EUR/USD through to print 1.0450 and GBP/USD just above the 1.2600 handle.

• For EUR/USD specifically, price has risen above the 50% retracement of the post-Fed price action at 1.0428 - making 1.0473 the next intraday level of interest on rallies.
• While FX volumes headed through the European morning at very low levels, they've caught up slightly into US trade, with the activity deficit dropping to 5-10% on the day, from ~30% at the European open.
• Despite the USD pullback, price action lacks much conviction here, with daily AUD/USD chart showing the price still well within range of cycle lows at the bear trigger of 0.6199.