NEW ZEALAND: Q4 Driven By Higher Tourism Spending, Construction Struggled

• As Friday’s selloff fades into the background and the rally resumes, the biggest sell off of the year appears to be nothing more than profit taking, a view supported by holdings data showing money managers have reduced positions.
• Overnight, gold resumed its rally up +.50% to US2,896.56 having opened at $2,882.96.
• Gold has benefited from concerns over tariffs and overnight the President spoke again about tariffs saying “On Trade, I have decided, for purposes of Fairness, that I will charge a RECIPROCAL Tariff meaning, whatever Countries charge the United States of America, we will charge them - No more, no less!"  He continued saying "I have instructed my Secretary of State, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of the Treasury, and United States Trade Representative (USTR) to do all work necessary to deliver RECIPROCITY to our System of Trade!"
• The selloff did little to change the technicals for gold with the uptrend still intact.  With the risks of an all out trade war coupled with an signs that inflation isn’t gone in the US,  the near term demand dynamic for gold could see it push through the $3,000 barrier sooner than expected. 

• Bank Indonesia to Sell 89D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 181D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 28D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 273D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 365D SVBI Bills
• Indonesia To Sell 2040 Bonds (FR0106)
• Indonesia To Sell 2035 Bonds (FR0103)
• Indonesia To Sell 2030 Bonds (FR0104)
• Indonesia To Sell 2064 Bonds (FR0105)
• Indonesia To Sell 2045 Bonds (FR0107)
• Indonesia To Sell 2054 Bonds (FR0102)
• Indonesia To Sell 90D,0:00:00 Bills (SPN03250521)
• Indonesia To Sell 350D,0:00:00 Bills (SPN12260205)
• Bank of Thailand to Sell 60 Billion Thb of 91-Days Bills
• MAS to Sell S$15.9 Billion 28-Day Bills
• MAS to Sell S$1.2 Billion 252-Day Bills
• MAS to Sell S$22.3 Billion 85-Day Bills
• Philippines To Sell PHP 30.0Bln 2034 Bonds (PH0000058133*)
• Hong Kong to Sell HK$13 Billion 182-Day Bills
• Hong Kong to Sell HK$64.966 Billion 91-Day Bills

In local morning trade, NZGBs are unchanged. 

• US markets were closed on Monday in observance of the Presidents' Day holiday. TYH5 is at 109-06+, -0-03+ compared to closing levels.
• NZ’s estimated population rose to 5,356,700 at the end of 2024, 48,500 more people than on December 31, 2023. This increase comprised a natural growth of 21,400 and a net immigration gain of 27,100.
• Swap rates are flat to 1bp higher.
• Today, the local calendar is empty, ahead of the RBNZ Policy Decision tomorrow. RBA Policy Decision is today.
• The RBNZ decision is widely expected to cut rates 50bp again to 3.75%. Revised staff forecasts will also be published.
• All 22 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are forecasting a 50bp rate cut and the RBNZ shadow board is recommending 50bp of easing.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. Notably, OIS pricing is 2–19bps firmer than pre-Q4 Labour Market data levels from February 4.
• Nevertheless, 49bps of easing is priced for Wednesday, with a cumulative 111bps by November 2025.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% Apr-27 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.25% May-34 bond and NZ$50mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.