FOREX: Rabobank See Scope for Further USD Weakness on 12-Month View

US President Donald Trump has confirmed on the Truth Social platform his call this morning with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Link here. 

• Trump confirms that "We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations."
• Trump: "We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now."
• Trump: "I have asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Ambassador and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, to lead the negotiations which, I feel strongly, will be successful."
• Trump: "No more lives should be lost! I[...]  I believe this effort will lead to a successful conclusion, hopefully soon!"

Such talks would mark the most concrete move towards an eventual conclusion of the war in Ukraine since the short-lived peace talks that took place in Feb-Mar 2022 in the immediate aftermath of the outbreak of the war. There has been significant speculation regarding the prospect of Trump's 'peace plan' for Ukraine being presented, or at least outlined by Trump's envoy Keith Kellogg at the Munich Security Conference starting 14 Feb. 

• Indeed, shortly before the call was reported MNI noted the war in Ukraine and the possible peace process entering a key time period amid US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's meeting with President Zelenskyy in Kyiv (see 'SECURITY: Bessent Says US Stands w/Ukraine Ahead Of Key Week For Peace Process', 1637GMT) and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's comments at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels (see 'SECURITY: Return To Ukraine's Pre-2014 Borders "Unrealistic" - Hegseth", 1402GMT). 

• Major stock averages trade weaker, recovering approximately half the ground lost after this morning's higher than expected CPI inflation measures (extremely strong supercore (core services ex OER & primary rents) print of 0.76% M/M sa in January followed zero revisions (to 2.d.p) for both Nov and Dec and a limited -0.04pp for Oct.)
• Currently, the DJIA trades down 219.74 points (-0.49%) at 44385.34, S&P E-Minis down 21 points (-0.34%) at 6073, Nasdaq down 8.5 points (0%) at 19641.27.
• Energy and Financials sectors underperformed in the first half, oil and gas stocks weaker as crude prices pare early week gains (WTI -1.28 at 72.04): Exxon Mobil -2.58%, Diamondback Energy -1.88%, Valero Energy -1.67%. Servicers weighed on the Financials sector: Cincinnati Fncl Corp -4.59%, Invesco Ltd -3.95%, MarketAxess Holdings -3.10%.
• Conversely, Consumer Staples and Health Care sectors led gainers at midday, broadline retailers buoyed the former: Walgreens Boots +1.07%, Walmart +0.98%, Kroger +0.68%. Pharmaceuticals supported the Health Care sector with Gilead Sciences +7.53%, Edwards Lifesciences +6.83%, Incyte +2.97%.
• Reminder, expected Wednesday afternoon earnings include: Equinix Inc, MGM Resorts International, Reddit, Robinhood Markets, Albemarle, AppLovin, Williams Cos, Corebridge Financial, Aurora Innovation, Dutch Bros, HubSpot and Cisco Systems.

• RES 4: 110-25   High Dec 12
• RES 3: 110-19   76.4% retracement of the Dec 6  - Jan 13 bear leg    
• RES 2: 110-14   High Dec 14
• RES 1: 109-10/110-00 50-day EMA / High Feb 7 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE:‌‌ 108-07+ @ 16:52 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 108-00 Low Jan 16   
• SUP 2: 107-06 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 107-04   Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 106-11   2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing  

Treasury futures traded sharply lower on Wednesday’s CPI print, resulting in a break of support at 108-20+, the Feb 4 low. The breach of this support highlights a stronger reversal and most likely, the end of the corrective cycle between Jan 13 - Feb 7. A continuation lower would open 108-00, the Jan 16 low, and expose 107-06, the Jan 13 low and bear trigger. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 110-00, the Feb 7 high.