UTILITIES: Redeia (REESM NR/BBB+/BBB+): 4Q24 Results

The Norwegian Q4 Labour Force Survey data is consistent with Norges Bank starting its easing cycle in March. While the Q4 unemployment rate was steady at 4.0%, employment growth was flat, meaning the labour force participation rate eased slightly to 72.6% (vs 72.8% prior).

• In December, the SA unemployment rate was 4.2%, up from 3.7% in November and 4.1% in October. The press release indicates that NSA unemployment rates were revised higher in August, September and November.
• Preliminary data suggests a 4.1% Y/Y growth rate in average renumeration in cash (vs 4.6% prior). We will be watchful of corroboration in other wage metrics over the coming weeks. A decline in pay growth would pull down unit labour costs, which should feed into lower services inflation, and provide scope for a more aggressive Norges Bank easing cycle than currently priced in markets (~72bps through year-end).

• RES 4: 2817.6 - 1.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing     
• RES 3: $2800.0 - Round number resistance  
• RES 2: $2790.1 - Oct 31 ‘24 all-time high   
• RES 1: $2786.0 - HIgh Jan 24      
• PRICE: $2752.9 @ 07:21 GMT Jan 27
• SUP 1: $2698.2/2668.8 - 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: $2614.8/2583.6 - Low Jan 6 / Low Dec 19
• SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18 
• SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 

Gold traded higher last week. A bull cycle remains in play and the recent breach of resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2668.8, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.

• It's a busier start for Bund Overnight as Risk Off dominated the session, already over a 30 ticks range ahead of a very busy Week, full of Data, Central Banks, and Month End to end the Week.
• The German Contract has gapped higher overnight, and stays underpinned/bid going into the Cash session, now breaking through 131.75, Friday's high.
• Note that the Tnotes (TYH5) has already fully cleared the Friday's high overnight, and the next immediate resistance is seen at 108.28+.
• For Bund a full clearance of 131.75, would open to 132.15 (20 day EMA), but better is seen at 132.22 and 132.57 initially.
• The opening gap would be down to 131.33.
• Today only sees the German IFO on the Data front.
• SUPPLY: Main focus will be on the heavy US Supply today, the US sells $69bn of 2yrs, and $70bn of 5yrs Notes.
• SPEAKERS: ECB Lagarde, Holzmann, Kazimir, Vujcic. Lagarde will be a pre-recorded message on receiving a prize, and we are unlikely to hear anything new ahead of the ECB this Week.