USDJPY TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• Headline 2.50%Y/Y in December (2.62% in November)
• Core 3.21%Y/Y in December (3.53% in November)
• Services 4.37%Y/Y in December (5.01% in November)
• NEIG 1.23%Y/Y in December (1.05% in November)
• Energy -6.01%Y/Y in December (-8.75% in November)
• Food, alcohol, tobacco 2.83%Y/Y in December (3.24% in November)

• RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance   
• RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
• RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing  
• RES 1: 158.87 High Jan 10  
• PRICE: 157.34 @ 06:58 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 156.90/02 20-day EMA / Low Dec 31
• SUP 2: 154.71 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 154.44 Low Dec 19
• SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17  

The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces a bull theme. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 156.90, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12     
• RES 3: 121.43 High Dec 16  
• RES 2: 120.70 High Dec 20   
• RES 1: 118.30/119.49 High Jan 10 / 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 117.32 @ Close Jan 14 
• SUP 1: 117.16 Low Jan 13          
• SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
• SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)     

The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has breached support at 117.40, the Nov 7 low and a key level, strengthening the current bearish condition. This opens 116.59, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 119.49, the 20-day EMA. A recovery would be considered corrective and this would allow an oversold condition to unwind.