USDJPY TECHS: Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact
- RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23
- RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 1: 154.44/80 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance / High Feb 12
- PRICE: 152.53 @ 07:04 GMT Feb 14
- SUP 1: 152.38/150.93 Low Feb 12 / Low Feb 07
- SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9
- SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDJPY faced resistance Thursday. The latest move down highlights that - for now - resistance around the 50-day EMA, remains intact. The average is at 154.44. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to highlight a stronger bullish theme. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 150.93, the Feb 7 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started on Jan 10.
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UK DATA: Unrounded UK CPI
- Headline 2.50%Y/Y in December (2.62% in November)
- Core 3.21%Y/Y in December (3.53% in November)
- Services 4.37%Y/Y in December (5.01% in November)
- NEIG 1.23%Y/Y in December (1.05% in November)
- Energy -6.01%Y/Y in December (-8.75% in November)
- Food, alcohol, tobacco 2.83%Y/Y in December (3.24% in November)
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 160.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 2: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 1: 158.87 High Jan 10
- PRICE: 157.34 @ 06:58 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: 156.90/02 20-day EMA / Low Dec 31
- SUP 2: 154.71 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 154.44 Low Dec 19
- SUP 4: 153.16 Low Dec 17
The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces a bull theme. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 156.90, the 20-day EMA.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Trades Through Key Support
- RES 4: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 121.43 High Dec 16
- RES 2: 120.70 High Dec 20
- RES 1: 118.30/119.49 High Jan 10 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 117.32 @ Close Jan 14
- SUP 1: 117.16 Low Jan 13
- SUP 2: 116.59 76.4% retrace of the Jun - Dec ‘24 bull cycle (cont)
- SUP 3: 116.07 Low Jul 8 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.45 Low Jul 3 ‘24 (cont)
The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has breached support at 117.40, the Nov 7 low and a key level, strengthening the current bearish condition. This opens 116.59, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 119.49, the 20-day EMA. A recovery would be considered corrective and this would allow an oversold condition to unwind.
