USDJPY faced resistance Thursday. The latest move down highlights that - for now - resistance around the 50-day EMA, remains intact. The average is at 154.44. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to highlight a stronger bullish theme. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 150.93, the Feb 7 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started on Jan 10.
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The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last week’s fresh cycle high, reinforces a bull theme. The recent breach of 156.75, the Nov 15 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 159.45, the Jul 12 ‘24 high. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 156.90, the 20-day EMA.
The current bear cycle in BTP futures remains in play and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Price has breached support at 117.40, the Nov 7 low and a key level, strengthening the current bearish condition. This opens 116.59, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 119.49, the 20-day EMA. A recovery would be considered corrective and this would allow an oversold condition to unwind.