USDJPY TECHS: Resistance To Monitor Is The 50-Day EMA

Slovakia has announced a mandate for a syndication while Germany, Spain and France are all still due to hold auctions this week and Italy is due to launch its inaugural retail BTP Piu. Already this week, the ESM held a syndication whilst Slovakia and Finland held auctions. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E37.4bln (excluding the retail operation), down from E50.9bln last week.

For the full document including more details on issuance this week and next week click here.

• Slovakia is likely to hold a syndication today after it announced a mandate for a new 15-year SlovGB maturing 27 February 2040 to take place in the “near future”. We pencil in a transaction size of E2.5-3.5bln.
  • The maturity is a little shorter than we had expected, we had looked for a new 12-year 2037 SlovGB to launch via syndication in February.
• This morning, Germany will return to the market to sell E4.5bln of the 10-year 2.50% Feb-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z049).
• Tomorrow, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli auction. On offer will be a combined E4.5-5.5bln of the on-the-run 2.40% May-28 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O59) and the 2.70% Jan-30 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O00) alongside the 3.55% Oct-33 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L78).
• Also tomorrow, France will hold a MT OAT auction selling a combined E11.5-13.5bln. The new 3-year 2.40% Sep-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XLW2), the 0% Nov-29 OAT (ISIN: FR0013451507) and the on-the-run 5-year 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68) will be on offer.
• Later tomorrow, France will return to hold a IL OAT auction to issue a combined E1.50-2.25bln. The 0.10% Jul-31 OATei (ISIN: FR0014001N38). The 0.10% Jul-36 OATei (ISIN: FR0013327491), the 0.95% Jul-43 OATei (ISIN: FR001400QCA1) and the 0.10% Mar-32 OATi (ISIN: FR0014003N51) will be on offer.

Greece, Portugal and the EU are all due to sell bills this week, whilst Germany, the Netherlands, France and the ESM have already issued bills. We expect issuance to be E18.9bln in first round operations, down from E22.2bln last week.

• Today, Greece will issue E500mln of the new 26-week Aug 22, 2025 GTB.
• Also today, Portugal will look to sell E0.75-1.00bln of the 11-month Jan 16, 2026 BT.
• Finally today, the EU will sell up to E1.5bln of the 3-month May 9, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.5bln of the 6-month Aug 8, 2025 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the 12-month Feb 6, 2026 EU-bill.

For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.

The minutes to the January 28-29 FOMC meeting (due out 1400ET/1900GMT Wednesday Feb 19) will be scrutinized primarily for three things: why the Fed shifted its statement language on inflation; was there any discussion of a rate hike scenario; and was there any further discussion over the potential impact of government policy shifts?

• Since the January meeting, FOMC participants have become more hawkish – or at least, more patient.
• We have shifted the dots in our Hawk-Dove Spectrum toward the hawkish end pretty much across the board – with sentiment toward a prolonged hold seemingly building.
• MNI's preview of the Minutes includes what to watch for upon release; MNI's FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum, and key highlights of FOMC participant commentary since the January meeting.
• Download Full Report Here