EURGBP TECHS: Retracement Mode
Mar-20 14:42
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8450 High Mar 11
- PRICE: 0.8355 @ 14:41 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 0.8349 50-day EMA and pivot support
- SUP 2: 0.8321 61.8% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.8391 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a key support
EURGBP is trading sharply lower today marking an extension of the pullback from the Mar 11 high. The cross has traded through 0.8369, the Mar 14 low, and is approaching the 50-day EMA, at 0.8349. The average marks a key short-term pivot level. A break of it would undermine the recent bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.8321, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8450, the Mar 11 high.
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EQUITIES: A quick fade in US Indices on the Cash open
Feb-18 14:38
- Not seen any standout flows to explain that sudden 14 points drop in the Emini on the cash open.
- There was no notable program orders, and the only order that was seen going through was a 1k seller in NQH5 (Nasdaq).
ECB: Cipollone Q&A: QT Playing Some Role On Credit Channel
Feb-18 14:37
- Q: (1) How do you interpret the pressure seen in the Italian repo market at the end of last year? Do you think there is something physiological there that the ECB should be taking into account?
A: (1) The banks are adjusting well to the new framework. We are moving away from a situation of scarce collateral. We see that the transmission is not provoking any fragmentation. Our overall assessment is that the money market conditions have not changed too much.
- Q: (2) Are we risking over estimating the impact of QT on the credit channel, given a lot of the activity is skewed towards the front-end of the yield curve (e.g. mortgages)?
A: (2) Even though we have been reducing interest rates in a robust way since June, we still see that the cost of borrowing for outstanding lows is still high, so it still takes time for the marginal to transmit to the economy. The fact it is taking so much time for the policy rate to transmit to borrowing, makes me think there is some role being played by QT.
EQUITIES: Updated Notional Option Expiry for Friday
Feb-18 14:35
Equity Option Expiry Friday 21st Feb, in Notional terms (updated), they have increased versus Friday besides the CAC:
US:
- SPX: $1.29T vs $1.23T.
- NDX: $52.16bn vs $50.06bn.
- Amazon: $13.20bn vs $12.61bn.
- Apple: $16.43bn vs $ 15.53bn.
EU:
- SX5E: €111.08bn vs €102.94bn.
- SX7E: €5.40bn vs €5.23bn.
- DAX: €31.85bn vs €19.36bn.
- CAC: €2.15bn vs €2.16bn.
- FTSE: £11.79bn vs £10.95bn.
