COMMUNICATIONS: SES Outlook Cut To Negative At Moody’s

• On Thursday, France will hold an MT OATs auction to sell a combined E11.0-13.0bln of the 2.50% Sep-27 OAT (ISIN: FR001400NBC6), the 5.50% Apr-29 OAT (ISIN: FR0000571218) and the 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68).
• Later on Thursday, France will also hold an I/L OATs auction to sell a combined E1.5-2.25bln of the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88), the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei (ISIN: FR0010447367), the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181) and the 0.55% Mar-39 OATi (ISIN: FR001400IKW5).

NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week sees no redemptions. Coupon payments for the week total E0.3bln of which E0.1bln are Slovakian and E0.1bln Greek. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E50.2bln, vs positive E25.4bln last week.

For more on last week's issuance and a look ahead to next week see the MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix here.

Slovakia, Germany and France are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week while the EFSF is expected to hold a syndication. We pencil in further syndications from Austria, Finland and Spain. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week at E50.5bln, up from E40.9bln last week.

• Today, Slovakia will hold a 3/8/9/20-year SlovGB auction. On offer will be the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024683), the 3.625% Jun-33 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000023230), the 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024865) and the 4.00% Feb-43 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022547).
  • Note that this will be the first reopening of the 4.00% Feb-43 SlovGB since its syndicated launch in February 2023.
• Tomorrow, Germany will hold a Green auction to sell E1bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Green Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU35025) and E1bln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z005).
• On Wednesday, Germany will hold a 15-year Bund auction, looking to sell E1.5bln of the 2.60% May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009) alongside E500mln of the 2.50% Jul-44 Bund (ISIN: DE0001135481).

ECB GC member Holzmann maintains his hawkish bias in an interview with POLITICO.

• He points to energy price risks and the move lower in the EUR (although the latter is a "mixed blessing" in his eyes) as threats to the inflation outlook, meaning that the outcome of the January ECB decision is not a foregone conclusion in his eyes.
• He said the same last week.
• Bund futures unmoved since his comments, EUR/USD a handful of pips higher, back above 1.0300 (highs of 1.0308), but still shy of Friday’s high at 1.0330.
• ECB-dated OIS showed ~90% odds of a 25bp cut later this month as of Friday’s close.
• Holzmann’s view shouldn’t move that pricing too much/at all, given his hawkish history, broader support for further ECB rate cuts within the GC and the fact that he already said as much last week.