OIL PRODUCTS: Shandong Teapot Inventory Rate Fall on Week: OilChem

Eurozone economic activity continues to be mixed at best across sectors and countries. Despite an uptick on an aggregate basis in Q3, mid-term growth momentum is subdued, with low investment and net exports, while household consumption is seen to exhibit some relative strength. The economic outlook for the bloc became more clouded in recent months amid subdued sentiment and expectations for a less favourable global environment going forward.

• Economic Activity: Final GDP growth printed 0.4% Q/Q in Q3, but Q4 is only estimated around the 0.1% handle. Annual growth is seen a little higher in 2025 (1.0%) vs 2024 (0.7%) and 2023 (0.4%), but momentum is uneven across sectors and the main countries.
• Labour Market: The Eurozone labour market continues to show some signs of cooling in recent months but remains overall resilient. Wage pressures continued to moderate recently.
• Monetary Policy: The ECB appears confident on being able to gradually cut its interest rates down to neutral territory with markets expecting 100bps of cuts in 2025.

PDF ANALYSIS HERE: 

2025_Jan21_Eurozone_Macro_Signal.pdf

Takeup of the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility fell for the 4th session in 5 Tuesday, dropping $22B to the 2nd lowest level of the year so far and only the 3rd below $100B since April 2021.

• There may yet be another fresh low set this week amid large bill settlements, though levels aren't expected to dip too far below $100B.

Amendment re the above point on Poilievre's tariffs stance. There was an update a little while back pushing to re-open parliament and agree on trade retaliation.

• "Canada is facing a critical challenge. On February 1st we are facing the risk of unjustified 25% tariffs by our largest trading partner that would have damaging consequences across our country. Our American counterparts say they want to stop the illegal flow of drugs and other criminal activity at our border. The Liberal government admits their weak border is a problem. That is why they announced a multibillion-dollar border plan—a plan they cannot fund because they shut down Parliament, preventing MPs and Senators from authorizing the funds.
• We also need retaliatory tariffs, something that requires urgent Parliamentary consideration. [...] "Common Sense Conservatives are calling for Trudeau to reopen Parliament now to pass new border controls, agree on trade retaliation and prepare a plan to rescue Canada’s weak economy."