USDCAD broke lower Thursday, breaking out of a tight trading range this week, to edge to new lows. For now, the latest move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. However, the pair has pierced a key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A clear break of this level would undermine a bullish theme and highlight a stronger reversal. This would open 1.4178, the Nov 26 ‘24 high. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on 1.4793, the Feb 3 high.
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A clear downtrend in JGB futures remains intact and the latest fresh cycle lows reinforce this condition. Note too that moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode setup, highlighting a clear downtrend. The move down exposes the 140.00 psychological handle next. For bulls, a reversal would open 142.73 and 144.48, the Dec 9 and Nov 11 high respectively.
The recent move down in EURJPY appears corrective. The recovery from Monday’s low highlights a potential short-term reversal and the end of the corrective cycle. A continuation higher would open 164.90, the Dec 30 high. Clearance of 164.90 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 160.04, the Jan 13 low. A breach of this level would be bearish.