USD: SocGen and ING Questioning if Dollar Weakness Can Extend
Feb-05 10:19
- There has been a substantial pullback for the USD index since Monday, highlighted by EURUSD rising back above 1.0400 and USDJPY extending below 153.00 overnight, on the back of stronger-than-expected Japanese wage data. Amid the renewed greenback pessimism, both Société Générale and ING appear cautious on how much further this short-term trend can extend.
- SocGen questions if USDJPY can fall much further "if the US economy remains robust, the Fed doesn’t ease much further and Treasury yields remain, essentially, rangebound". They, instead, see a "short-term solution [of] selling EURJPY [...] where the deterioration in Eurozone growth expectations relative to Japan is striking". SG have been arguing in recent weeks that relative growth expectations matter more than relative rates.
- ING meanwhile think markets are "under-pricing the risk of a more prolonged trade spat" between the US and China as AUDUSD has "erased its short-term risk premium", concluding "the new layer of uncertainty generated by this tariff scare argues against a sustained dollar decline".
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US TSY FLOWS: Block trade
Jan-06 10:16
10yr Block trade suggest buyer:
- TYH5 5k at 108.15.
US TSY FLOWS: Bouncing off the lows
Jan-06 10:09
- Some order related bid in Treasuries helps the strip off its low with a pick up in Volumes as we slowly head into the US session.
- TY is bought in 7k, FV 6k and US 2k, all cumulative volumes, but futures contract remain well within the European ranges.
EURIBOR: EURIBOR FIX - 06/01/25
Jan-06 10:03
EURIBOR FIX - EMMI/Bloomberg
- EUR001W 2.8980 -0.0030
- EUR001M 2.8350 0.0430
- EUR003M 2.7570 0.0260
- EUR006M 2.5850 0.0310
- EUR012M 2.4870 0.0390
