JPY: Spot Near Option Expiry Levels For NY Cut Later, Yen Dominating Volumes

NZGBs closed at session cheaps, with benchmark yields 7bps higher. The NZGB 10-year did, however, outperform ACGBs, with the NZ-AU yield differential 6bps narrower. 

• There have been no cash dealings in US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session with Japan out for a holiday. TYH5 is, however, weaker at 107-07, -0-05+ from NY closing levels.
• Outside of the previously outlined building approvals and filled jobs data, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
• Swap rates closed 7-8bps higher, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 2-7bps firmer across meetings, with October leading. 49bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 126bps by November 2025.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the results of the NZIER Business Opinion Survey.
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$175mn of the 3.50% Apr-33 bond and NZ$75mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.

The Chinese economy is expected to grow by 4.8-5.2% y/y in Q4, rising from Q3’s 4.6% and achieving the annual growth target of around 5%, Yicai.com reported, citing analysts. Despite a higher comparison base, additional policies launched since September have driven a recovery in consumption, real estate and industrial production, while exporters rushed shipments ahead of anticipated new tariffs also supported growth, the newspaper said. Retail sales are likely to rise by 0.5 percentage points to 3.54%, while industrial output may decelerate slightly from the previous 5.4% to 5.35%, the newspaper noted, citing the median of economists surveyed.

Chinese provincial and city governments on Monday will issue local government bonds for the first time this year, Securities Daily reports. Local governments will sell more than CNY720 billion of special bonds during Q1, of which new special bonds exceeds CNY300 billion and refinancing special bonds of more than CNY410 billion. Authorities have begun debt issuance early this year given plans for a more proactive fiscal policy, said Bai Yanfeng, professor at the School of Finance and Taxation at the Central University of Finance and Economics. Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank expects the limit of special bonds in 2025 to reach CNY4.5 trillion.