ASIA STOCKS: Strong Inflows Into Asian Equities As Tariffs Concerns Decrease

Feb-06 00:10

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A solid day for equity flows into Asia on Wednesday as investors concerns around tariffs decrease. T...

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LNG: Cold January To Boost Gas Demand For Heating

Jan-07 00:08

European natural gas prices fell sharply on Monday likely because of technical selling. They trended lower through the session to finish down 4.9% at EUR 47.21, the lowest since before Christmas, and down 3.4% this month. This is despite drawing from inventories at the fastest pace in seven years. The weather is forecast to stay cold across north-western Europe for now increasing heating demand.  

  • European storage is around 70% full compared to 86% this time last year, according to Bloomberg. Energy provision through winter is unlikely to be disrupted but low inventories may make refilling during spring/summer more challenging.
  • US gas rose 10.7% to $3.71 to be up 2.2% in January to date as severe wintery weather boosted heating demand and impacted some gas output and pipelines. Forecasts are signalling that temperatures are likely to remain below average to January 21 and frozen gas infrastructure is expected to increase.
  • Global demand for US LNG has been strong and Reuters is reporting that some traders believe prices rose sharply due to close to record flows to LNG export facilities.
  • After the pipeline to Europe through Ukraine was shut on January 1, Russia is looking at other buyers for its gas. It is planning to increase its LNG exports, which Europe has bought a record amount of, and pipeline flows to China. 

MNI: UK BRC DEC BY VALUE SHOP SALES LFL +3.1% YY, TOTAL +3.2% YY

Jan-07 00:01
  • MNI: UK BRC DEC BY VALUE SHOP SALES LFL +3.1% YY, TOTAL +3.2% YY

UK DATA: BRC-KPMG Sales Boosted By Black Friday Inclusion

Jan-07 00:01

BRC-KPMG retail sales increased 3.2% Y/Y in December, reversing nearly all of November's -3.3% Y/Y, but it should be taken with a pinch of salt as the survey period included Black Friday this time around (it wasn't included in Dec'23). 

  • This is technically the highest reading since March 2024 (which was boosted by the earlier timing of Easter) whilst Like-for-Like sales increased 3.1% Y/Y (vs a fall of 3.4% in November).
  • Food sales rose 1.7% Y/Y in December after 2.2% Y/Y in Nov whilst non-food sales jumped 4.4% Y/Y after -7.9% Y/Y on the same Black Friday distortion.
  • Smoothing out the distortion, the three month to December figures saw sales growth of just 0.4% 3M Y/Y.
  • Given the BRC follows the ONS calendar dates, it is likely ONS December retail sales will also be firm, somewhat artificially inflated by the inclusion of Black Friday sales.
  • Data covers: 24 November - 28 December 2024.
  • Looking ahead, the Chief Executive of the BRC projects sales growth to average 1.2% in 2025, below projected shop price inflation of 1.8%. 

     

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