EGBS: Supply Weighing Once Again

FTSE Block trades, suggest buyers, multiple clips:

• Z H5 4.16k total at 8218.00.
• Z H5 2.5k total at 8217.00.

Gilts remain under pressure, with Chancellor Reeves’ weekend comments doing little to promote confidence.

• Futures breach initial support at last week’s low (89.00), basing at 88.96, before a bounce to 89.25 last.
• Yields little changed to 4bp higher, 50s relatively resolute.
• 10s as high as 4.901% this morning vs. last week’s high of 4.921%.
• 30s got near last week’s multi-decade high (5.473%), topping out at 5.469%.
• 10-Year gilt/Bunds little changed on the day, around 225bp.
• BoE-dated OIS shows 46bp of cuts through year-end vs. 49bp late on Friday. Last week’s extremes of ~39bp untested.
• SONIA futures 0.5-5.5 lower, last week’s lows intact.
• GBP750mln of short-dated APF sales from the BoE due this afternoon.
• CPI data (Wednesday) headlines the domestic calendar this week. That reading will be much more consequential for markets than the monthly GDP (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday) data.
• We will provide the usual data preview and review around the CPI release.
• Comments from BoE dovish dissenter Taylor (Wednesday) also eyed.

ERG5 97.87/97.75/97.62p fly, bought for 0.75 in 2k.