OIL: Sverdrup Production Returning Following Power Blip

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $30.661 - High Jan 10                             
• PRICE: $30.335 @ 08:16 GMT Jan 13  
• SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.

Gilts follow global peers lower.

• Futures breach initial support at last week’s low (89.00), basing at 88.96, before a bounce to 89.25.
• Yields 2-4bp higher across the curve.
• 10s as high as 4.901% this morning vs. last week’s high of 4.921%.
• 30s near last week’s multi-decade high (5.473%).
• 2s10s within 2.5bp of last year’s high, last 30.3bp vs. ’24 peak of 32.8bp.
• Gilt/Bunds ~1bp wider at 225bp.
• Fibonacci supports located below worst levels, 88.87 and 88.53 eyed.
• Goldman Sachs’ base case remains that “slowing growth momentum and a broader disinflationary trend will allow the BoE to cut more than markets are expecting, which will help the market digest elevated duration supply.”
• They also believe that the rise of fiscal risk premia suggests “the skew of risks is towards further budgetary restraint, which should ultimately reduce worries about the inflationary effect of the budget.”
• On that front, the weekend saw Chancellor Reeves stress that the fiscal rules in are "non-negotiable", with growth remaining the government's top priority.
• GBP750mln of short-dated APF sales from the BoE due this afternoon.
• See our pre-gilt open STIR bullet for greater colour on this week’s UK data & BoE speakers.

RXG5 130/129ps, sold at 20 in 4k.