* Latam swap curves have mostly edged higher today, following by the move up in core UST yields. W...
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A bearish theme in USDJPY remains intact and last week’s move down reinforces current conditions. 151.06, 76.4% of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of it would open 149.69, the Dec 9 low. Firm resistance is seen at 154.70, the 50-day EMA. Note that the pair has entered oversold territory. A recovery would be considered corrective and would allow the oversold condition to unwind.
Deutsche Bank analysts estiamte that "reciprocal" tariffs by the Trump administration on foreiign trading partners, in addition to the 25% announced tariff on steel and aluminum imports, could "if sustained" increase core PCE by 30-40 basis points in 2025 vs their baseline. This would mean inflation of closer to 3% vs Deutsche's 2.5% baseline core PCE forecast for the year - that's before accounting for 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico which would push 2025 core PCE to 3.5%.