CHILE: Trade Surplus Below Expectations In February
Mar-07 11:33
* *CHILE POSTS TRADE SURPLUS OF $1,630 MILLION IN FEB." - BBG * Trade surplus narrowed from $3.376...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FOREX: USDJPY Bear Cycle Extension, Initial Support Holds
Feb-05 11:33
- USDJPY downside momentum gained traction on Wednesday, following a break of short-term support at 153.72, the Jan 27 low. The move marks an extension of the bear cycle that started Jan 10. Both sides of the trade have been working in tandem as the USD index extends its pullback to roughly 2.3%, and stronger-than-expected Japanese wage data assists a more hawkish BOJ narrative.
- We previously noted support at 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement, which has held at first attempt. However, should the short-term sentiment extend through US hours, more meaningful support is found at 151.81, the Dec 12 low. Below here, attention would be on 151.06, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg.
- SocGen questions if USDJPY can fall much further "if the US economy remains robust, the Fed doesn’t ease much further and Treasury yields remain, essentially, rangebound". They, instead, see a "short-term solution [of] selling EURJPY [...] where the deterioration in Eurozone growth expectations relative to Japan is striking".
- Further weakness in the cross would place attention on 156.99, the Dec 4 low, and 156.18, the Dec 3 low and a key support.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Feb05 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Feb-05 11:32
- EUR/USD: $1.0300-05(E1.4bln), $1.0315-35(E1.8bln), $1.0400(E570mln), $1.0500(E1.4bln)
- USD/JPY: Y153.15-25($2.0bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.4240($954mln), C$1.4500($710mln), C$1.4530($847mln), C$1.4600($1.5bln)
STIR: Next Fed Cut Fully Priced For July, ISM Services In Focus
Feb-05 11:31
- Fed Funds implied rates have extended yesterday’s decline along with broader FI rallies. Expect continued sensitivity to Trump headlines but today’s scheduled macro focus is on ISM Services at 1000ET (after its priced paid series jumped 5.9pts to 64.4 in December for the highest since Feb 2023) plus any spillover from Treasury’s QRA at 0830ET.
- We also have three Fedspeakers scheduled today but only Barkin last spoke prior to Trump’s inauguration. Recent context below.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 4.5bp Mar, 11.5bp May, 22bp Jun, 28bp Jul and 47bp Dec.
- Vice Chair Jefferson (permanent voter) spoke late yesterday for the first time since early October. He appeared broadly in line with the median member: “I continue to see a gradual reduction in the level of monetary policy restraint placed on the economy as we move toward a more neutral stance as the most likely outcome.That said, I do not think we need to be in a hurry to change our stance.”
- 0730ET – Barkin (non-voter) on Bloomberg TV (no text). He last spoke Jan 15, saying latest CPI data suggest inflation is still declining but the Fed should remain restrictive until inflation returns to 2%. He was encouraged by the drop in the US unemployment rate in December. It’s currently difficult to build Trump policies into forecasts.
- 0900ET – Barkin in fireside chat at Conference Board “2025: A Year In Preview” (no text)
- 1430ET – Goolsbee (’25 voter, text only) at automotive conference (text only). He has already spoken this week, saying the Fed has to be more careful with how fast to cut rates – of note for the most dovish member of the committee.
- 1500ET – Bowman (permanent voter) gives update on economy & bank regulation (text only). One of the most hawkish members of the FOMC, she said Jan 31 that she wants to see inflation progress before adjusting rates and that it’s unlikely rates are exerting “meaningful restraint”.
