USDCAD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA
Mar-07 21:00
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4450/4543 High Mar 5 / 4
- PRICE: 1.4375 @ 16:12 GMT Mar 7
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
The USDCAD correction / bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains in play for now and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA. at 1.4301. A deeper retracement would expose key short-term support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Feb 3. On the upside, a breach of 1.4543, the Mar 4 high, would be bullish.
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ASIA: Coming Up In The Asian Session On Thursday
Feb-05 20:56
| 2300GMT | 0700HKT | 1000AEDT | South Korea Dec BoP Current Account Balance |
| 0100GMT | 0900HKT | 1200AEDT | Philippines Dec Unemployment Rate |
| 0330GMT | 1130HKT | 1430AEDT | Thailand Jan CPI |
ASIA: Coming Up In The Asia-Pac Session On Thursday
Feb-05 20:54
| 2300GMT | 0700HKT | 1000AEDT | South Korea Dec BoP Current Account Balance |
| 2350GMT | 0750HKT | 1050AEDT | Japan Jan Investor Flows |
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | US Fed's Jefferson Gives Lecture |
| 0030GMT | 0830HKT | 1130AEDT | Australia Dec Trade Balance |
| 0130GMT | 0930HKT | 1230AEDT | Japan BOJ Board Tamura Speech in Nagano |
| 0200GMT | 1000HKT | 1300AEDT | Japan Jan Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies |
| 0330GMT | 1130HKT | 1430AEDT | Japan to Sell 3.5 Trillion Yen of 6-Month Bills |
| 0335GMT | 1135HKT | 1435AEDT | Japan to Sell 30-Year Bonds |
US TSYS: Treasuries Well Bid, Curves Bull Flatten Ahead Friday's Employ Data
Feb-05 20:51
- Treasuries look to finish near late session highs Wednesday, lower than expected ISM Services data spurring heavy buying across the board - ISM Services missed expectations at 52.8 (54.0 expected, 54.0 prior), with pullbacks prevalent in some key categories.
- ADP employment was stronger than expected in January at 183k (cons 150k) along with a solidly upward revised 176k (initial 122k) in Dec. Meanwhile, December's goods and services trade deficit was slightly wider than thought at $98.4B.
- No change to Treasury guidance on future issuance in the February Refunding policy statement, a modest dovish surprise vs many expectations that it would be watered down.
- The Mar'25 10Y contract has nearly made it back to pre-Dec 18 FOMC levels, topping at 109-29 high before slipping back to 109-24 (+17.5) after the bell. Curves bull flattened, 2s10s -6.344 to 23.336, 5s30s -2.856 at 39.718; 10Y yield slipped to session low of 4.4001%.
- The Greenback traded weaker on the data (BBDXY off lows at 1297.89 -2.69), Yen outperformance remained the key feature of the day in G10 currency markets, underpinned by the stronger-than-expected Japanese wage data.
- Additional cross asset moves, Gold hit new all-time high of 2882.29, Crude turned lower (WTI -1.49 at 71.21), Stocks reversed early weakness (SPX Eminis +12.0 at 60.75 vs. 6020.25 overnight low.
- Focus remains on Friday's headline employment data for January.
