USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 1.4676 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19 
• PRICE: 1.4385 @ 20:33 GMT Jan 8 
• SUP 1: 1.4326/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6  
• SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17 
• SUP 3: 1.4163 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

The trend set-up in USDCAD remains bullish and the move down is considered corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4326, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would open 1.4163, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
• RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
• RES 1: 142.73/144.48 - High Dec 9 / High Nov 11  
• PRICE: 141.22 @ 20:07 GMT Jan 08
• SUP 1: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
• SUP 2: 140.54 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
• SUP 3: 140-00 - Round number support    

A clear downtrend in JGB futures remains intact and this week’s fresh cycle lows, reinforces this condition. Note too that moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode setup, highlighting a clear downtrend. The move down exposes 141.05, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. For bulls, a reversal would open 142.73 and 144.48, the Dec 9 and Nov 11 high respectively. 

• RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 1: 95.851 - High Dec 11 
• PRICE: 95.435 @ 20:03 GMT Jan 8
• SUP 1: 95.373 - 0.618 proj of the Dec 11 - 23 - 31 price swing  
• SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14
• SUP 3: 94.590 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

The Aussie 10-yr futures contract continues to trade below the Dec 11 high of 95.851, and has traded through the Dec low. A stronger bearish reversal would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. For bulls, a reversal higher and a breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle and refocus attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point.