USDCAD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.5000 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 2: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 1: 1.4600/1.4793 Round number resistance / High Feb 3
- PRICE: 1.4318 @ 16:55 GMT Feb 7
- SUP 1: 1.4270 Low Feb 5
- SUP 2: 1.4261 Low Jan 20 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.4178 High Nov 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.4120 Low Dec 11
USDCAD is unchanged, despite some notable mid-session volatility. The pair is trading close to this week’s lows at the close. For now, the latest move down appears corrective and the primary uptrend remains intact. Monday’s cycle high, reinforces and strengthens bullish conditions. The break higher confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens 1.4814 next, the Apr 2003 high. Key support to watch lies at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low. A clear breach of this level would alter the picture and signal a reversal.
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USDCAD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 1.4676 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4385 @ 20:33 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: 1.4326/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6
- SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4163 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
The trend set-up in USDCAD remains bullish and the move down is considered corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4326, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the average would open 1.4163, the 50-day EMA.
JGB TECHS: (H5) Bear Cycle Extension
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 142.73/144.48 - High Dec 9 / High Nov 11
- PRICE: 141.22 @ 20:07 GMT Jan 08
- SUP 1: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 2: 140.54 - 2.236 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 140-00 - Round number support
A clear downtrend in JGB futures remains intact and this week’s fresh cycle lows, reinforces this condition. Note too that moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode setup, highlighting a clear downtrend. The move down exposes 141.05, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. For bulls, a reversal would open 142.73 and 144.48, the Dec 9 and Nov 11 high respectively.
AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (H5) Bearish Structure
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.851 - High Dec 11
- PRICE: 95.435 @ 20:03 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: 95.373 - 0.618 proj of the Dec 11 - 23 - 31 price swing
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14
- SUP 3: 94.590 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
The Aussie 10-yr futures contract continues to trade below the Dec 11 high of 95.851, and has traded through the Dec low. A stronger bearish reversal would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. For bulls, a reversal higher and a breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle and refocus attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point.
