ENERGY: Trump Strikes Positive Tone on Russia Talks

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 12-Feb 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (2.2%, --)
• 12-Feb 0830 CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.3%), YoY (2.9%, 2.9%)
• 12-Feb 0830 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (0.2%, 0.3%), YoY (3.2%, 3.1%)
• 12-Feb 0830 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (0.5% revised, --)
• 12-Feb 0830 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (1.2% revised, --)
• 12-Feb 1000 Fed Chair Powell House Financial Services testimony
• 12-Feb 1130 US Tsy $62B 17W bill auction
• 12-Feb 1200 Atlanta Fed Bostic economic outlook (no text, Q&A)
• 12-Feb 1300 US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CMM0)
• 12-Feb 1400 Federal Budget Balance (-$86.7B, -$89.2B)
• 12-Feb 1705 Fed Gov Waller on Stablecoins (text, Q&A)

AUD/USD through the London close at new session highs - the pair is shrugging off any concerns over the installation of steel/aluminium tariffs and instead is benefiting from the relative strength of global equities (rate is following the e-mini S&P higher here) and the resultant tailwind for energy. Key resistance is just above at 0.6302, the 50-day EMA. A break would be bullish.

• While tariff headlines have proved negative for iron ore prices (DCE Iron Ore futures are 2% off the week's highs), the run higher off the January lows will be providing underlying support for the currency.
• Intraday USD weakness remains a key driver more broadly in G10 today which, while mild, is looking through the weakness in the belly of the US curve - driven in turn by EGB/Gilt bond supply given the heavy syndication flow today. More importantly, the front-end of the US curve is stable enough - leaving markets content to sell the USD across the US morning as equities and sentiment improved.
• Despite the latest bounce, the AUD trend structure remains bearish. A resumption of the bear leg would open 0.6045, a Fibonacci projection.

• US TSY 42D AUCTION: HIGH RATE 4.260%; 51.83% AT HIGH
• US TSY 42D BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 38.71% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 42D BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 3.13% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 42D BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 58.16% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 42D AUCTION: BID/COVER 2.91