OIL: Trump/Putin Call Set To See Peace Talks Start, Impacting Crude/TTF
Feb-13 08:40
Trump/Putin call set to see Ukraine peace talks start imminently, impacting crude/TTF pricing.
- US President Trump confirmed that he talked to Russian President Putin yesterday, saying negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine conflict will begin imminently.
- Trump then said he spoke to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and hopes that the results of discussions between Ukraine and US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marc Rubio will be positive.
- TTF has fallen ~5.5% this morning partially owing to progress towards a resolution to the conflict.
- The Sum25-Win25 spread has fallen to 3EUR/MWh today, down from 5EUR/MWh yesterday.
- Media reports last week suggested that European officials were considering the potential for restarting Russian pipeline gas flows to Europe as part of a negotiated end to the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
- Meanwhile, Equinor commented that up to 35 Bcm of additional Russian gas could be seen in Europe following an end to the Russia/Ukraine conflict, which could support efforts to refill European gas storage ahead of winter.
- Brent is down ~0.5% on the day. A peace agreement could see US sanctions on Russia’s energy trade eased, reducing supply-side risks.
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ECB: Holzman Continues To Argue For Cautious Easing
Jan-14 08:38
Unsurprising rhetoric from ECB hawk Holzmann this morning, speaking at a Euromoney conference in Vienna:
- "ECB'S HOLZMANN: DON'T THINK WE CAN LOWER RATES TOO QUICKLY, CORE INFLATION IS STILL CLOSER TO 3% THAN 2%" RTRS
- "*ECB'S HOLZMANN: HAVE A LOT OF CHALLENGES ON ENERGY" bbg
- "*ECB'S HOLZMANN: HOPE TO MEET 2% INFLATION TARGET BY YEAR-END" bbg
Holzmann expressed some concerns around energy prices in an interview with Kurier on Dec 28: “It could be the case that we take more time before lowering rates again,”...“It’s true, some energy prices are trending upwards again. But there are also other scenarios for how inflation could return, such as a stronger depreciation of the euro.”
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call fly vs put spread
Jan-14 08:37
ERM5 97.625/97.75/97.875c fly vs 97.4375/97.3125ps, bought the fly for 0.25 and half in 9k.
EGB SYNDICATION: 10-year GGB: Books open
Jan-14 08:29
- Guidance: MS+107bps area
- Size: Benchmark (MNI expects E3-4bln)
- Maturity: 15 June 2035
- Settlement: 21 January, 2025 (T+5)
- ISIN: GR0124041758
Via Bloomberg / market source
