US TSYS: Tsys Futures Sell-Off On Budget Blueprint

• Gold has had a stellar start to 2025 and last week delivered the best weekly gains thus far.
• Gold gained +2.4% last week driven by a ‘safe-haven’ bid in the face of mounting tariff risks.
• This week has started no differently with news that President Trump intends to levy up to 25% tariffs on Colombia following the turning away of a flight from the US, deporting illegal immigrants.
• Gold closed Friday at US$2,770.58 and has given some of that back in early trading, down to $2,767.00 at the open and falling throughout the day to $2,758.28.
• Over the weekend Ghana’s released it’s trade surplus details, rising US$5bn, driven by a 50% increase in gold exports to $11.6bn. 

Taiwan enjoyed strong inflows with Korea as outflows elsewhere. 

• South Korea: Recorded inflows of +$240m Friday, bringing the 5-day total to --$506m. 2024 to date flows remain are -$218m. The 5-day average is -$101m, the 20-day average is -$10m and the 100-day average of -$149m.
• Taiwan: Had inflows of +$537m as of January 22nd, with total inflows of +$2264m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1261m. The 5-day average is -$71m, the 20-day average of -$71m and the 100-day average of -$111m.
• India: Saw outflows of -$354m as of the 23rd, with a total outflow of -$2283m over the previous 5 days. YTD outflows stand at -$6814m. The 5-day average is  -$457m, the 20-day average of -$379m and the 100-day average of -$108m.
• Indonesia: Posted outflows of -$35m , bringing the 5-day total to -$57m. YTD flows are negative at -$223b. The 5-day average is -$11m, the 20-day average is -$8m the 100-day average of -$2m.
• Thailand: Recorded inflows of +$38m as of Friday, totaling -$23m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$246m. The 5-day average is -$5m, the 20-day average of -$12m the 100-day average of -$10m.
• Malaysia: Experienced outflows of -$69m Friday, contributing to a 5-day outflow of -$158m. YTD flows stand at -$587m. The 5-day average is -$32m, the 20-day average of -$29m the 100-day average of -$22m.
• Philippines: Saw outflows of -$19m yesterday, with net outflows of -$34m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$115m. The 5-day average is -$7m, the 20-day average of -$6m the 100-day average of -$2m.

JGB futures are stronger but off session highs, +11 compared to the settlement levels.

• US Tsys have been supported in today’s Asia-Pac session after news that Trump on Sunday ordered an emergency 25% tariff on all Colombian goods entering the US. Subsequently, Bloomberg reported that the US will not levy threatened tariffs on Colombia after the South American country’s government “agreed to all of President Trump’s terms".
• Currently, cash US tsys are dealing 2-4bps richer.
• Ahead of a key earnings week, US stock futures are dealing lower. The S&P 500 is down ~1.0% and the Nasdaq is down ~0.50%.
• Focus this week is the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.
• Today, the local calendar has been light, with Coincident/Leading Index data and an Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity 5-15.5 YR due later.
• Cash JGBs are little changed across benchmarks. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.2bp lower at 1.229% versus the cycle high of 1.262%.
• Swap rates are flat to 1bp lower. Swap spreads are mixed.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see PPI Services and Machine Tool Orders data alongside BoJ Rinban Operations covering 1-5-year and 10-25-year JGBs.