TTF front month is extending the decline this week to fall around €10/MWh from a peak of €59.39/MWh on Feb. 11 under growing calls from member states to relax EU storage targets. Potential Ukraine peace talks, strong LNG imports driven by record US exports are adding bearish pressure and with the possibility of a correction to high net long market positioning.
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Dovish repricing in EUR STIRs following the lower-than-expected UK CPI reading, with ECB-dated OIS now back to pricing 91bps of cuts through the course of this year (vs 87bps at yesterday’s close).
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Jan-25 | 2.675 | -24.4 |
Mar-25 | 2.445 | -47.4 |
Apr-25 | 2.303 | -61.6 |
Jun-25 | 2.165 | -75.4 |
Jul-25 | 2.116 | -80.3 |
Sep-25 | 2.050 | -86.9 |
Oct-25 | 2.035 | -88.4 |
Dec-25 | 2.013 | -90.6 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |
Gilt calls, these DO NOT take into account the UK CPI, and given that Sonia is up 11.5 ticks in the red, Desks will look for further upside risks.