NATGAS: TTF Falls Nearly €10/MWh From Peak Earlier in Week
TTF front month is extending the decline this week to fall around €10/MWh from a peak of €59.39/MWh on Feb. 11 under growing calls from member states to relax EU storage targets. Potential Ukraine peace talks, strong LNG imports driven by record US exports are adding bearish pressure and with the possibility of a correction to high net long market positioning.
- Cold temperatures are forecast across much of Europe into early next week before milder weather returns as temperatures in NW Europe rise above normal for the second week of the outlook. Wind generation remains relatively low in the coming days.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have recovered slightly to 323.1mcm/d today after a dip yesterday to 312.5mcm/d due to short unplanned outages.
- European gas storage withdrawals were higher on the day to remain above normal. Storage was 46.57% full on Feb. 12, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 55.2%.
- European LNG sendout has risen to the highest since Dec. 12 at just under 480mcm/d on Feb. 12 compared to an average of 434mcm/d so far in February.
- Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are today at 59.4mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
- ICE TTF futures traded in a record high aggregate volume up at 823k on Feb. 13.
- TTF MAR 25 down 3.1% at 49.77€/MWh
- TTF SUM 25 down 3.2% at 49.5€/MWh
- TTF WIN 25 down 3.1% at 47.46€/MWh
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
STIR: Dovish Repricing Post UK CPI, 90bps of ECB Cuts Priced Through '25
Dovish repricing in EUR STIRs following the lower-than-expected UK CPI reading, with ECB-dated OIS now back to pricing 91bps of cuts through the course of this year (vs 87bps at yesterday’s close).
- Euribor futures remain within yesterday’s range, now +0.5 to +4.0 ticks through the blues versus yesterday’s settlement levels.
- Overnight, ECB Chief Economist Lane played down the short-term impact of exchange rate movements on imported inflation, but noted that the euro “plays a role” over time.
- French and Spanish final December HICP inflation confirmed flash estimates.
- ECB Vice President de Guindos is scheduled to speak at 0820GMT, with Villeroy and Vujcic expected around 0830GMT.
- Eurozone November industrial production is due at 1000GMT, though primary global focus will be on the US CPI report at 1330GMT.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.675 | -24.4 |
| Mar-25 | 2.445 | -47.4 |
| Apr-25 | 2.303 | -61.6 |
| Jun-25 | 2.165 | -75.4 |
| Jul-25 | 2.116 | -80.3 |
| Sep-25 | 2.050 | -86.9 |
| Oct-25 | 2.035 | -88.4 |
| Dec-25 | 2.013 | -90.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
MNI: SPAIN DEC HICP 0.4% M/M, 2.8% Y/Y
- MNI: SPAIN DEC HICP 0.4% M/M, 2.8% Y/Y
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, these DO NOT take into account the UK CPI, and given that Sonia is up 11.5 ticks in the red, Desks will look for further upside risks.
- Range would have been 89.30/89.47.
