UK DATA: UK Q4 GDP First Estimate and Monthly Dec Activity Data Due 07:00GMT
- Consensus expects monthly GDP to rise 0.1% M/M following +0.1% in Nov and -0.1% in Oct.
- The small rise in monthly GDP is expected to be broad-based with all three main subcomponents anticipated to rise in December, in particular, services is expected to increase 0.1% M/M for another month despite falling retail sales in December, Industrial production and construction are both expected to increase 0.2% M/M (vs -0.4% and 0.4% priors).Whilst December was relatively warm, rainfall was above average according to the Met Office, which places downside risk to construction output.
- On a quarterly basis, consensus expects GDP to fall -0.1%, in line with the BOE's latest projection. However, unless we see downward revisions to earlier months, the monthly and quarterly consensus numbers don’t necessarily add up.
- Assuming no revisions to November and October monthly data, we would need a December GDP print in the range of -0.23% and 0.07% M/M for a Q4 GDP at -0.1% Q/Q. Consensus currently looks for 0.1%M/M – so only a very soft 0.1%M/M print is consistent with the quarterly print. Note that, a monthly print between 0.07% and 0.37% would result in a flat Q/Q GDP print, while a print above 0.37% M/M would get a Q4 quarterly reading of 0.1% Q/Q or higher.
- Looking ahead, GDP growth is expected to remain sluggish, with the BOE projection for 2025 being downgraded to 0.75%.
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EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C January 13, 2025
Spain, Belgium and Portugal are all still due to sell bills this week, whilst Germany and France already came to the market. We expect issuance to be E18.1bln in first round operations, down from E37.9bln last week.
- This morning, Spain will issue a combined E2-3bln of the 3-month Apr 11, 2025 letras and the 9-month Oct 10, 2025 letras.
- Also today, Belgium will look to sell E3.4-3.8bln of 4/12-month TCs: an indicative E2.0bln of the May 8, 2025 TC and an indicative E1.6bln of the new Jan 15, 2026 TC.
- Finally tomorrow, Portugal will issue E1.0-1.25bln of the new 12-month Jan 16, 2026 BT.
For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (H5) Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 5097.00 High Oct 14
- RES 3: 5080.00 High Oct 15
- RES 2: 5068.13 0.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing
- RES 1: 5054.00 High Jul 8
- PRICE: 5008.00 @ 06:20 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 4937.06/4876.00 50-day EMA / Low Jan 3
- SUP 2: 4829.00 Low Dec 20 and key short-term support
- SUP 3: 4800.87 76.4% retracement of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 4775.00 Low Nov 29
A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Initial support is at 4937.06, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this EMA would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance at 5040.00, Dec 9 high, has recently been pierced. Clearance of it would resume the bull cycle that started on Nov 21 and open 5068.13, a Fibonacci projection.
EURGBP TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.8424 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- PRICE: 0.8395 @ 06:31 GMT Jan 14
- SUP 1: 0.8321/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
- SUP 2: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP traded sharply higher last week and remains firm. The cross has cleared the December highs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Note too that 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has also been cleared. Sights are on 0.8424, a Fibonacci retracement and the Jan 13 high. A break of this level would open 0.8448, the Oct 31 high. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8318.
