SECURITY: Ukraine Discussions Top Of Agenda For MSC
The future of Ukraine will be the main topic of focus at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), getting underway today. Sideline talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US Vice President JD Vance will be closely watched, with the Zelenskyy administration making clear on 13 Feb that it would not accept any peace deal that it was not involved in negotiating. There have been concerns in Kyiv and European capitals that US President Donald Trump's push for a rapid settlement with Russian President Vladimir Putin will see Ukraine and Europe excluded from talks and no concessions drawn out from Russia.
- Before the conference, Vance said he and Zelenskyy "Will talk about the Ukraine-Russia conflict and how to bring it to a negotiated settlement", adding "We want to make sure that NATO is actually built for the future."
- Some key speakers from the official schedule for today are below. Livestream here.
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen - 0700ET/1200GMT/1300CET
- US Vice President JD Vance - 0730ET/1230GMT/1330CET
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi - 0800ET/1300GMT/1400CET
- Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar - 0830ET/1330GMT/1430CET
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), and John Cornyn (R-TX) - 0830ET/1330GMT/1430CET
- UK Secretary of State for Defence John Healey, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda - 0930ET/1430GMT/1530CET
- Palestinian PM & Foreign Minister Mohammad Mustafa, Jordanian Deputy PM and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ayman Al Safadi and European High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas - 1100ET/1600GMT/1700CET
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EUROPEAN INFLATION: Broad-based Acceleration Of Spanish Inflation In December
Spanish December inflation confirmed flash estimates at 2.8% Y/Y, up from 2.4% in November. All major sub-components other than processed foods accelerated on an annual basis, with core (ex-energy/unprocessed food) inflation ticking up to 2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.5% prior).
- Services inflation was 3.7% Y/Y (vs 3.5% prior). A 12.4% Y/Y rise in package holidays (vs 8.1% prior) was an important factor here, with the recreation and culture component at 3.9% Y/Y (vs 2.5% prior). More broadly, the December services PMI highlighted that services firms have been able to pass on input cost rises to consumers.
- Non-energy industrial goods inflation remained soft at 0.3% Y/Y (vs 0.2% prior). In contrast to services firms, the December manufacturing PMI highlighted that competitive pressures have limited pricing power amongst Spanish manufacturers.
- Processed food inflation was 2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.5% prior), while unprocessed food inflation accelerated to 2.1% Y/Y (vs 0.8% prior).
- Energy inflation was 5.5% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior), driven by fuel prices.
GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
DFA has announced it will be looking to sell the following Green Bunds at its auction next Tuesday, January 21:
- E1bln of the 2.10% Apr-29 Green Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU35025)
- E1bln of the 2.30% Feb-33 Green Bund (ISIN: DE000BU3Z005)
EGB OPTIONS: Bund call spread
RXH5 131.50/132.50cs, bought for 17.5 in 3k.
