POWER: Ukrainian Power Imports Increase Five-Fold in 2024
Jan-02 10:46
Ukraine's power imports rose sharply in 2024, more than fivefold to 4.4TWh as ongoing Russian aerial attacks on critical energy infrastructure have caused widespread power deficits, according to Kyiv Independent.
- In 2024, Ukraine's major electricity suppliers included Hungary, which provided 39% of the imports, followed by Slovakia at 23%, Romania at 18%, and Poland at 14%.
- Ukraine only exported 0.366TWh during the year in comparison to its imports.
- Rolling blackouts, sometimes lasting up to 20 hours, were implemented to manage shortages.
- Russia occupies the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear facility.
- Substations critical for Ukraine’s other nuclear plants—Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and South Ukraine—have been targeted, further straining the energy system.
- Nuclear power plants account for approximately two-thirds of Ukraine’s electricity supply, and disruptions pose significant safety risks.
- The IMF estimated cumulative damage to Ukraine’s power grid at $56.5bn by mid-2024 due to Russian attacks.
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BONDS: EGBs & Gilts Tighten To Bunds As European Equities Rally
Dec-03 10:45
{EU}{GB} BONDS: Firmer European equities and a contained uptick in crude oil prices apply weight to bonds this morning.
- Bund futures away from yesterday’s high as a result, last -35 at 134.98.
- Initial support and resistance at 134.34/135.46, recent bull cycle intact.
- German yields 3-5bp higher, curve bear flattens, bulls failed to test 2.00% in 10s.
- Schatz supply passed smoothly.
- The bid in equities promotes EGB tightening to Bunds, with BTPs outperforming, ~4bp tighter on the day.
- OATs are nearly 4bp tighter on the session vs. Bunds, we wrote a little more on French paper earlier, with tomorrow’s no-confidence vote against the government looming.
- ECB speak not moving the needle thus far.
- 27.5bp of cuts priced for this month’s meeting vs. 29bp early today, as Bunds weaken. 160bp of cuts priced through Dec ’25. We may get some pre-meeting steer from President Lagarde tomorrow.
- Gilts relatively resilient, futures stick in the upper end of yesterday’s range, last -1 at 96.11.
- Initial support and resistance at 95.78/96.31, bullish corrective cycle in the contract remains in play.
- UK yields 1-2bp higher on the day.
- 30-Year gilt supply was absorbed smoothly.
- 10-Year spread to Bunds ~2bp tighter on the day at 215.5bp, after registering a fresh cycle closing high Monday.
- BoE pricing little changed on the day, last showing 30.5bp of cuts through March and 83bp through Dec ’25.
- Comments from ECB’s Panetta and U.S. JOLTS data eyed this afternoon, as well as Fedspeak from Daly, Kugler & Goolsbee.
ECB: Kazaks Sees ECB Cuts Remaining Gradual and Data Dependent
Dec-03 10:45
- Bank of Latvia Governor Kazaks told an MNI Connect event Tuesday that the ECB should cut rates when it meets in December but policy adjustment should remain gradual and data-dependent.
- He does however accept that policymakers need to remain both “agile and flexible” if needed.
- The comments are a marginal pullback from an appearance on Delfi TV yesterday where he said "We’ll definitely discuss [a bigger-than-usual rate cut in December]” albeit whilst caveating that we have to keep in mind the very high uncertainty at present.
- ECB-dated ESTR OIS has trimmed rate cut expectations today and shows reduced odds of a 50bp cut at the Dec 12 meeting with 28bp priced.
GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: BELGIUM T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 4-Month TC
Dec-03 10:35
| Maturity | Mar 13, 2025 |
| Amount | E1.001bln |
| Target | E0.8-1.2bln |
| Previous | E1.515bln |
| Avg yield | 2.704% |
| Previous | 2.916% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.71x |
| Previous | 2.5x |
| Previous date | Nov 12, 2024 |
