EM LATAM CREDIT: United Mexican States (MEX;Baa2neg/BBB/BBB-) Economic Data
Mar-05 12:12
"MEXICO DEC. CAPITAL INVESTMENT FALLS 4.0% Y/Y; EST. -2.5%" - BBG Neutral for spreads * Continues a...
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EURIBOR: OI Data Points To Mix Of Net Long Setting and Net Short Cover Friday
Feb-03 12:07
OI data points to a mix of net long setting and net short cover in Euribor futures on Friday, with the EUR short-end rallying on the softer-than-expected French and German state-level flash inflation readings.
- The largest net OI swing was seen in the whites (-26.6k), with more modest moves seen in the rest of the strip.
- Indicative net short cover was observed in H5, M5 and Z5 contracts, with light net long setting seen in U5.
| 31/01/2025 | 30/01/2025 | Daily OI Change | Daily OI Change In Packs | ||
| ERH5 | 553,447 | 560,714 | -7,267 | Whites | -26,561 |
| ERM5 | 735,364 | 745,031 | -9,667 | Reds | -6,419 |
| ERU5 | 516,879 | 514,947 | +1,932 | Greens | -4,516 |
| ERZ5 | 655,616 | 667,175 | -11,559 | Blues | +4,383 |
| ERH6 | 412,436 | 406,614 | +5,822 | ||
| ERM6 | 343,631 | 346,728 | -3,097 | ||
| ERU6 | 261,077 | 264,177 | -3,100 | ||
| ERZ6 | 292,740 | 298,784 | -6,044 | ||
| ERH7 | 154,087 | 154,852 | -765 | ||
| ERM7 | 123,882 | 121,591 | +2,291 | ||
| ERU7 | 95,693 | 97,372 | -1,679 | ||
| ERZ7 | 119,667 | 124,030 | -4,363 | ||
| ERH8 | 54,987 | 54,013 | +974 | ||
| ERM8 | 43,861 | 42,121 | +1,740 | ||
| ERU8 | 29,648 | 28,009 | +1,639 | ||
| ERZ8 | 43,662 | 43,632 | +30 |
STIR: SONIA FIX - 03/02/25
Feb-03 11:58
| SONIA FIX - Source: BBG/ICE | ||
| 1M | 4.48650 | -0.0317 |
| 3M | 4.45900 | -0.0163 |
| 6M | 4.36110 | -0.0251 |
| 12M | 4.22150 | -0.0399 |
US TSYS: Significant Twist Flattening On Long-Threatened Tariff Unveiling
Feb-03 11:54
- Treasuries continue to demonstrate significant twist flattening following President Trump actually imposing long-threatened tariffs over the weekend (to be effective Feb 4).
- Trump has unveiled 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods except for a partial carve-out with 10% on energy (including oil & electricity), along with 25% tariffs on Mexico and 10% on China plus threats of upcoming tariffs on the EU. The measures take effect at 0001ET on Tuesday leaving only a small window for last-minute negotiations.
- Cash yields are 7.5bp higher (2s) to 2.2bp lower (30s) with the pivot after 10s.
- 2s10s at 27bps (-7.5bps) is at lows since late December.
- TYH5 is within session ranges at 108-29+ (+ 02+) on heavy cumulative volumes nearing 770k (~1.6x recent averages).
- A bullish corrective cycle is intact as 109-10+ (50-day EMA) remains exposed. It has been pierced but a clear break would strengthen a bullish theme and open 109-31 (Dec 18 high). The medium-term trend condition is bearish. It hit 108-21+ shortly after the open probe 108-23+ (20-day EMA) with initial firm support seen at 108-06 (Jan 23 low).
- Data: S&P Global US PMIs Jan final (0945ET), ISM mfg Jan (1000ET), Construction spending Dec (1000ET)
- Fedspeak: Bostic talks on economic outlook (1230ET), Musalem welcoming remarks (1830ET) – see STIR bullet.
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $84B 13W & $72B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
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